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Self-driving cars currently operate in extremely controlled conditions in a few specific locations. There's very little evidence that they're on a trajectory to break free of those restrictions. It doesn't matter how much an airliner climbs in altitude, it's not going to reach LEO.

Self-driving cars will not revolutionize the roads on the timescale that people thought it would, but the effort we put into them brought us adaptive cruise control and lane assist, which are great improvements. AI will do similar: it will fall short of our wildest dreams, but still provide useful tools in the end.



Tesla FSD isn't restricted to specific locations, and seems to be reducing the number of human interventions per hour at a pretty decent pace.


Interventions per hour isn't a great metric for deciding if the tech is going to be actually capable of replacing the human driver. The big problem with that number is that the denominator (per hour) only includes times when the human driver has chosen to trust FSD.

This means that some improvements will be from the tech getting better, but a good chunk of it will be from drivers becoming better able to identify when FSD is appropriate and when it's not.

Additionally, the metric completely excludes times where the human wouldn't have considered FSD at all, so even reaching 0 on interventions per hour will still exclude blizzards, heavy rain, dense fog, and other situations where the average human would think "I'd better be in charge here."


So add the percentage of driving time using FSD. That's improving too, by quite a bit if you consider that Autopilot only does highways.


Maybe:

(avg miles between interventions) * (percentage of miles using self-driving)




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