> I recently lost a bet about autonomous driving. Five years ago, I thought that autonomous cars would be better than human drivers by now.
I think we're going to see something very similar with LLMs. The autonomous car hype was driven by seeing that they were 80% of the way there and concluding that at the rate they were going they'd make up the remaining 20% quickly. That turned out to be false: the last 20% has been much harder than the first 80%.
LLMs are in a very similar place, even GPT-4. They're good, and they're going to be more and more useful (similar to adaptive cruise control/lane assist). But I predict that they're going to level out and stop improving as rapidly as they have in the past year, and we're going to end up at a new normal that is good but not good enough to cause the crises people are worried about.
This is my bet too. I think we're going to get some fantastic new tools for doing specific tasks that work like magic, and that we could never have imagined ten years ago. I don't think we're going to get Yud hijacking a B-52.
I think we're going to see something very similar with LLMs. The autonomous car hype was driven by seeing that they were 80% of the way there and concluding that at the rate they were going they'd make up the remaining 20% quickly. That turned out to be false: the last 20% has been much harder than the first 80%.
LLMs are in a very similar place, even GPT-4. They're good, and they're going to be more and more useful (similar to adaptive cruise control/lane assist). But I predict that they're going to level out and stop improving as rapidly as they have in the past year, and we're going to end up at a new normal that is good but not good enough to cause the crises people are worried about.