It will be very interesting to see how the renewable energy transition will play out. Energy drives the economy. Zero price energy is something akin to zero interest rates.
While abundance is a positive, it also makes all sort of absurd projects feasible.
In the short term we have a storage problem but I dont think this be an issue for much longer.
It's a guarantee that hydrogen production will take off, and in the long-run disrupt basically everything else. All of the critics are trapped in the mentality that green hydrogen will always be expensive. They are totally oblivious to the possibility that it could be practically free.
But it will be practically free, or at least close to it. And that's the problem for all possible competition. How do you compete with something that is either free or close to it? You can't. So in long-run, anything that can be directly displaced by hydrogen will be driven out of the market.
Provided that absurd projects pursued as collective obsessions don't drown any good ideas. Energy is just one ingredient. Human attention, capability and committment is maybe the essential element and its typically grossly under-utilized.
With abundant energy we get (in principle) global electrification, with that we get global digital interconnection and (again in principle) a uniform educational level. But with technology the positive scenario just never seems to be the one that actually materializes.
When oil prices rallied last year I saw an increase of gas-guzzlers on parking lots with a large FOR SALE sticker, but I'm not entirely sure the converse is true.
The number one driver of size in cars has been safety - either mandated or just perceived.
I suspect that, if anything, with abundant energy cars might become cheaper or made using more exotic materials like CFRP or anything borrowed from Formula 1.
> The number one driver of size in cars has been safety - either mandated or just perceived.
Yeah, and what will change about this trend? Do you think all of a sudden people will want cars perceived as unsafe? If bigger is perceived as safer, bigger is what we'll get. People will just get bigger and bigger cars, up to the limit of lane widths, parking spot lengths, etc.
> I suspect that, if anything, with abundant energy cars might become cheaper or made using more exotic materials like CFRP or anything borrowed from Formula 1.
Ok, bigger and lighter up to a point. But guess what, car engineers will just use the weight budget to add seat heaters and coolers, 20 subwoofers, etc.
> When oil prices rallied last year I saw an increase of gas-guzzlers on parking lots with a large FOR SALE sticker, but I'm not entirely sure the converse is true.
We've seen this before with the 70s oil crisis. Car sizes went down, then as soon as times were perceived as good or prosperous, car sizes went up.
The VW Golf of 2023 (compact European hatchback) is bigger than the VW Passat of 1973 (mid-sized sedan).
While abundance is a positive, it also makes all sort of absurd projects feasible.
In the short term we have a storage problem but I dont think this be an issue for much longer.