You seriously think the US can't get a few mercenaries inside Russia if they wanted to? Especially in this case... I am reasonably sure more or less neutral forces like the Middle East states or India would rather frown at disrupting TSMC and wouldn't be against a little underhanded action to take a few civilians out. It's not like you are doing a coup or such, you just need to accident a few civilians.
You're describing a standard CIA black op. And if they aren't going after a Russian government asset, I'd wager there would be less likelihood of catching heat, especially if the one's doing the work are native Russians looking to make a quick buck.
> You're describing a standard CIA black op. And if they aren't going after a Russian government asset, I'd wager there would be less likelihood of catching heat, especially if the one's doing the work are native Russians looking to make a quick buck.
Black OPs are not necessary, and would likely be too messy, what is more effective is flooding weapons into a border nation (like Ukraine) currently at conflict with Russia and then tapping into the local dissenting populace (aptly justified) and allowing them to infiltrate a porous border.
While I'm not stupid enough to think that the CIA aren't above such things, the truth is just like with Cuba/Castro they cannot resort to such tactics anymore: land invasions end up like Afghanistan and Iraq, Stuxnet leads to further instability for almost no gain (blame Israel/Mossad) and this seems more like what they did in the Iran-contra situation mixed in with operation fast and furious. This allows for nearly absolute plausible deniability, while also letting Russia know it's not beyond the West's touch.
The Pentagon/DoD supplying the weapons is just the right amount of overt message
that gets the pint across.
Geopolitics and War are absolutely disgusting, but at least their is a logic behind it instead of Red scare BS they were once so headlong to follow; what I ultimately fear is the path these psychopaths are likely to lead us as a Species down if this doesn't end soon.
Just by typing this out it reveals ignorance regarding this topic. The people who actually know how it's settled in Moscow and D.C. don't write replies on HN.
> those hollywood stories about mercs acting as in cia/jason-bourne movie in reality won't fly in Russia
Hollywood fantasies not withstanding, partisans have been operational in Russia and Belarus since at least the war began. In fact the counter offensive heavily relies on the use of Partisan [0] for sabotage, intel, and counter intelligence and likely will remain until the War ends, and possibly longer.
I think this will end in the end o the greater Russian Federation, last weekend it got close to showing what it will take: there too many warring factions with oligarchs, personal interest and access to private paramilitaries/mercenaries (Wagner being the most obvious) will not allow their standing as the effective ruling class be let go because they no longer support Putin and will back anyone who keeps them in their lofty positions--the collapse of the Soviet Union proved that many times over.
In short, a corrupt Mafia petrol-state has many enemies in and out of it's borders; to think their aren't people ready and willing to kill for vengeance is the real sense of fiction here. Hell, throughout the war their have been many examples of these 'Bourne' types, before the rounding up of fighting age men during the mobilization last year that led to millions of men fleeing Russia, recruitment centers were set ablaze in defiance to the war.
What gets me is if everyone knows this is the inevitable outcome, wouldn't the most logical thing to do is to back Nadya from Pussy riot or Alexi's forced escape and subsequent political aspirations or campaign. (I don't personally care who governs what will likely be a smaller Russia so long as they're contained, and their nuclear weapons are static).
> let me just tell you that you're in way over your head
>> Just by typing this out it reveals ignorance regarding this topic. The people who actually know how it's settled in Moscow and D.C. don't write replies on HN.
Funny, I was is in Ukraine in the Fall of '21 and I felt and knew Russia was going to invade by November, which was when Belarus and Poland were in a proxy war and I had to return into the EU during that debacle and saw how Hungary was locking it's borders.
By contrast no one was mentioning the possibility of Russia invading at that time, despite having put 75k troops in the Spring on the Ukrainian border in Belarus being a major contributor, with any real seriousness.
I'm well aware of what I don't know on these matters, but unlike most of you I have been involved in this matter since the Maidan Revolution. The creation of Uniterd24 was the manifestation of the technology WE in the Bitcoin community built, while you FAANG lackeys patted yourself on the back in creating a digital panopticon.
Let me remind you: we are not the same thing, so I'm not offended. I'm just aghast of how little you people grasp of the World and what is possible with allocating human capital to more noble causes. But since it isn't lucrative or even looked down as it is here (see my post history for examples of this laughable arrogance), if this weren't the case then maybe your opinion would have some value to me.
Just to be clear: I'm not a shot-caller, nor do I consider myself one as I'm an anarchist for a reason and detest the nature of politics/geopolitics to my very core; however, it's clear that COVID and this war has shown the horrendous nature of sleeping with despots these last 3 decades has and is mired with long term consequences for short term (but lucrative gains) for corporations and politicians.
Until you know what it feels like to see Fukushima and then seeing these moronic mobiks digging up trenches in Chernobyl and living in dread as they start shelling Zaporizhzhia while living on mainland Europe I will just never see any value in your opinions either.
> You seriously think the US can't get a few mercenaries inside Russia if they wanted to?
This would be unbelievably risky... The mercenary might get caught afterwards, before, or just be a Russian double agent from the start. And if any of that happens, you'd give Putin a massive refueling on his bonfire of anti-western propaganda.
> The mercenary might get caught afterwards, before, or just be a Russian double agent from the start.
If you're going to make things up, it might be an entirely successful poisoning done by the girlfriend of the head of the gang, days after her mom's bills for cancer treatment were entirely paid off. Then, a rumor goes around that she killed him to get to a secret account, and the evidence is that her mom's bills were paid off mysteriously. Days later, she's found dead in an alley; people assume that she was a victim of another member of the gang - even the other members of the gang assume it, although no one is talking. Meanwhile, it was an agent that had been placed as a clerk at a local tax office, on his lunch break.
You wouldn't hire some ex US special forces person hiding in Russia in deep cover, like a movie. You'd hire local thugs who works as enforcers for a gang to simply grab these guys and shove them in a van and deliver them to a warehouse.
These are cash-motivated criminals not ideological or patriotic fanatics. I imagine the interrogation would be like "You know why we captured you, right? Yes. Login and disable your entire network and live or we brutalize you until you do and then kill you. Ok."
Especially if this was at a government level (ie, not private "loss prevention") you'd be able to tap the intel network for local criminals and things to hold over their heads to motivate them.
How do you make sure these people don’t take money and vanish?
You tell them half payment before and half after? Then they leave with half and don’t do shit.
You say well I’m going to pay you all after job is done. Well they say fuck you, pay half now or we are not lifting a finger you want something from us not that we want anything from you.
Oh how do you track them down and beat them up if they are gone with your half payment? You hire next batch that do the same?
You really think anyone who isn't already sucking up to him cares what Vlad is saying? The US could probably do anything in Russia right now short of using a dirty bomb (and even then, as long as there are no US markings ..) and nothing would change.
Yes, many care, just like they did during the Cold War when the US and USSR would battle for the hearts of non-aligned countries. Much of the world is wary of the United States and thinks it is an out-of-control bully that answers to no one. That Russia invaded Ukraine isn't unnoticed by these countries but that doesn't give the US a free pass to do whatever it wants, wherever it wants. Lots of countries would like to see the US embarrassed for its continued overreach and bullying of smaller countries. Trying to conduct covert operations inside of Russia and getting caught would be a huge positive in the eyes of those who are routinely victimized by the meddling of the United State in everyone's affairs.
> Much of the world is wary of the United States and thinks it is an out-of-control bully that answers to no one.
I mean, bully is an emotionally weighted term; but that is precisely the situation. They're the hegemon/sole superpower. It's what nations in that position have done since time immemorial.
On the flipside, Pax Americana has been undeniably the most peaceful time in recorded human history. Conquest is nigh nonexistant, most empires are dead and war, poverty and sickness are at an all-time low. With many of the geopolitical and technological advances that led to that directly attributable to the United States and it's allies. The question isn't whether they are "bullies" or not, it's whether or not you think they're abusing that status and that the other options are nicer bullies. Empires fall throughout history, them losing superpower status would just be a footnote for those people's "gotcha"; so they better be sure the alternative is an improvement.
> That Russia invaded Ukraine isn't unnoticed by these countries but that doesn't give the US a free pass to do whatever it wants, wherever it wants.
Clearly it does. Unless/until someone wants to dismantle their position. Are they playing with fire by overutilizing that position? Certainly. But they're willing to risk that when it is particularly beneficial for them/their allies. What is Cuba, North Korea, Iran, Mexico, etc going to do about it?
> Lots of countries would like to see the US embarrassed for its continued overreach and bullying of smaller countries.
Lots of countries would like to see them embarrassed even if they did absolutely nothing. Again, that's the risk of being hegemon.
This is a lot more complex than just praising the US for the state of affairs past World War II. Bootstrapping Europe with the Marshall plan was great. But Western European peace is largely entrenched thanks to the Schuman Plan leading to the formation of the Steel And Coal Community eventually mutating into the European Union.
US efforts elsewhere are ... not great? While the US involvement in the 1949 coup in Syria is not clear, it's certainly sus how quickly the president approved a pipeline. Then there was Iran shortly after with Mossadegh (https://www.npr.org/2019/01/31/690363402/how-the-cia-overthr...) etc
Central and Southern America , well , can we even name a country where they haven't intervened for the worse?
I didn't praise the US anywhere in that post. I simply stated that the geopolitical situation resulting from their being "numbah one" (Pax Americana) has been, pretty much without question, the most warless, healthy, prosperous and equitable time in history. And that a significant portion of that is directly correlated to their political, militaristic and technological motives. When their direct/closest allies are added in, that grows to the vast majority. Nothing about that is praise, it's just fact.
Hating them is worth nothing, if the replacement (and it's geopolitical aura) is worse; beyond a "gotcha murricans" that would fade in a decade. Few would argue for the world being better if the Soviet Union "won" the Cold War and the US collapsed, especially given the current situation.
That all being said, we could easily take this offline and have a direct conversation on Latin America and how there are hundreds of ways it was positively affected by Pax Americana (even in a net positive, for most), despite the terrible things it's done. And how all of the other regional powers were acting in the exact same manner (worse, in many cases), but receive far less attention in the shadow of the US. My degree/education is in precisely that field, after all.
Russia could touch anyone in the US that they really wanted to, and vice versa. There is just this understanding that whatever you do, they are going to know it was you most likely, and something is coming back. So Russia turning a blind eye to cybercriminals extorting the USA and others is their way at annoying the USA just as the USA does to them in various ways. But when that annoyance turns into something more than annoying, and verges on an act of war, there will be a response. That is why you don't really see foreign acts of assassination. Because other parties can do the same thing.
They will probably contact the real-life folks that were the basis for the character played by Liam Neeson in Taken.
"I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. If you are looking for ransom I can tell you I don't have money, but what I do have are a very particular set of skills. Skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you let my daughter go now that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you, but if you don't, I will look for you, I will find you and I will kill you."
- Liam Neeson, Taken.
> In 2011, a self-proclaimed counter-terrorism expert was convicted of wire fraud after claiming the film was based on a real-life incident in which his daughter was killed. William G. Hillar, who pretended to be a retired Green Beret colonel, claimed to have spent more than 12 years lecturing US government agencies such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation on security issues. However, records revealed he had actually been a radar operator in the Coast Guard Reserve between 1962 and 1970, and had never been in the US Army. Nevertheless, his website claimed Taken was based on events involving him and his family. Hillar, who admitted the charges, was sentenced to 500 hours of community service at Maryland State Veteran Cemeteries. He also agreed to repay $171,000 in speaking fees that he had received from various organizations to which he had presented himself as an expert in terrorism and human trafficking.[29]
Russia is famously a country where you can buy full personal dossier of basically anyone for pocket change on dark net, with extremely corrupt law enforcement and literal private militaries operating on its territory.
If one set out to do it without much bureaucracy, it is honestly fairly simple given the resources.
Even if they are out of reach of western intelligence agencies, they are stepping on the Russian government’s toes with unsanctioned attacks on critical infrastructure.
Ratchet up enforcement and surveillance and sanctions on the whole ecosystem, so that their lives are all less pleasant. Given enough political willpower, the US could stop accepting it as the price of business, and even start finding WMDs in Iraq, so to speak.
E.g. move from sanctioning and charging the leaders to sanctioning and charging everyone in the whole operation, so they and their families can't leave Russia without facing arrest.
As long as they never leave Russia, they're fine... for now. But even Snowden knows Putin's imminent fall from power could upend his extradition protection.
