I think you're basically saying "yes - of course there's an elephant in the room, but if you just look past the elephant at the larger picture..."
And to be clear - I completely agree with you that there is a larger picture, and we had a very interesting test of what just-in-time supply chains looked like during global crisis, and we're now seeing all sorts of trends that we don't have good insight on.
But also... that elephant is still there. Running the money printer hot and heavy for a few years is almost certainly a major driver for inflation, even if the timing of that inflation can be very hard to predict (markets are absolutely not rational actors) and even if we know there are confounding factors.
And to be clear - I completely agree with you that there is a larger picture, and we had a very interesting test of what just-in-time supply chains looked like during global crisis, and we're now seeing all sorts of trends that we don't have good insight on.
But also... that elephant is still there. Running the money printer hot and heavy for a few years is almost certainly a major driver for inflation, even if the timing of that inflation can be very hard to predict (markets are absolutely not rational actors) and even if we know there are confounding factors.