> Sea level has risen like a half a foot in the last 70 years. That's not all that fast.
The pace of ice melting is still an unpredictable process due to its non-linearity, but the current imbalance between ice melting and new snow in the Greenland ice sheet commits a 27cm rise, according to [1]. This with current temperatures (not temperature rises).
From my layman understanding, antarctic runoff is less understood, but also its effect is potentially much larger. Article : [2]
Finally people with more knowledge than me, IPCC AR6, have estimates based on paleoclimates that depend on climate trajectory. [3], box TS4 pp. 77-78. Their optimistic story is 28-55cm by 2100. Their pessimistic assessment is "Under the higher CO2 emissions scenarios, there is deep uncertainty in sea level projections for 2100 and beyond". Also note that even in the best scenario, sea doesn't stop rising after 2100. Sea level rise is likely locked in for centuries.
A last word on "mean sea level": it's just a mean, impact may be worse for some areas.
> Meanwhile, places like Netherlands are increasing their land area over that time.
That's, like, a tiny confetti of wealthy people. Not sure this kind of anecdotal information is relevant to rising sea levels.
The pace of ice melting is still an unpredictable process due to its non-linearity, but the current imbalance between ice melting and new snow in the Greenland ice sheet commits a 27cm rise, according to [1]. This with current temperatures (not temperature rises).
From my layman understanding, antarctic runoff is less understood, but also its effect is potentially much larger. Article : [2]
Finally people with more knowledge than me, IPCC AR6, have estimates based on paleoclimates that depend on climate trajectory. [3], box TS4 pp. 77-78. Their optimistic story is 28-55cm by 2100. Their pessimistic assessment is "Under the higher CO2 emissions scenarios, there is deep uncertainty in sea level projections for 2100 and beyond". Also note that even in the best scenario, sea doesn't stop rising after 2100. Sea level rise is likely locked in for centuries.
A last word on "mean sea level": it's just a mean, impact may be worse for some areas.
> Meanwhile, places like Netherlands are increasing their land area over that time.
That's, like, a tiny confetti of wealthy people. Not sure this kind of anecdotal information is relevant to rising sea levels.
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2 [2] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201... [3] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6...