But in this case the alternative is not MacOS or Ubuntu, but a distro nobody has ever heard of. Third-party app users may be the more die-hard/advanced user group - and the minority - but I wonder how many of them are willing to switch to a small distro which might not have the content or might have an even shittier app experience.
If there are no alternatives, which today there aren't to the best of my knowledge, my guess is Reddit will win this stalemate. Sure, people will leave but not nearly as many as the leaders of the strike would like to think. At least, not for long.
There hasn't been a strong need for alternatives so there was little motivation to make one (or improve the ones that exist). I think that's going to be changing now.
I don't expect a rapid fall of Reddit or Twitter but rather a slow decline. It's not unprecedented.
That's the risk they take, indeed. Also the risk for anyone who migrates as chances are the alternative is not profitable either. In the end, to sustain the offering party needs to be profitable or at least break even.
Reddit went from 700 employees to 2000 employees because they took VC money and have to grow grow grow. I'm sure one could make a sustainable business out of Reddit but nobody wants just a sustainable business.
The cycle will repeat for sure -- it's been repeating for over 20 years now.
If there are no alternatives, which today there aren't to the best of my knowledge, my guess is Reddit will win this stalemate. Sure, people will leave but not nearly as many as the leaders of the strike would like to think. At least, not for long.