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From a practical point of view, if the prior probability of the disease is low but the disease is mortal and there is a $0.1 test and $0.2 pill that cure the disease without having negative effects, I think that you should take the test and if positive take the pill. Knowing the posterior probability is not enough to decide what to do, you have to know what are the tools and trade-offs.


Wouldn't you just give everyone the pill in this scenario?


This is how non-prescription supplements work.




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