Export requires interconnects to reach the demand. There might not be enough surplus capacity on the existing power lines.
Transmission lines lose power over distance, making the effective rate for distant consumption higher than for local consumption. I don't know what the prices are. Wikipedia says at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission :
> Long-distance transmission (hundreds of kilometers) is cheap and efficient, with costs of US$0.005–0.02 per kWh
but it cites an article from 1984. Note that this article says "the price was only 0.3 cents per kWh at its highest", so if $0.02 is valid for now, transmission would be about 5% of the cost, assuming transmission of only a few hundred kms.
Finland exports to Sweden and Estonia. I can't help but wonder if the flood conditions in northern Finland, which lead to increased hydroelectric-generated electricity, are also true in Sweden. A quick news check found https://www.thelocal.se/20230522/relief-in-northern-sweden-a... from three days ago saying "Relief in northern Sweden as flooding shows signs of peaking", so I assume northern Sweden's hydro plants are also in full operation.
This sounds like there isn't much demand within a few hundred kms, so not much opportunity to export.
There's lots of reasons to invest in interconnects. Systems stability, resilience. And avoidance of curtailment.
It's a huge issue here in Oz on the eastern seaboard, the privatisation of power supply wound up making very odd market dynamics around who pays, who benefits. Regulatory oversight is breaking down a bit, as the transition to PV/Wind/Batteries happens. We're getting the new interconnects we need but slowly, and it's fought both by existing incumbents in coal and gas, and NIMBY pressures by landholders (some get revenue for hosting transmission towers, they can offset climate affected farm incomes)
Interconnects are complicated. Frequency management, directionality (some links reverse direction depending on load balances) Surges, inductive load, power, sudden loss.. its like BGP network management but worse. I think some of the slowness is how hard it is, modelling what could possibly go wrong with modifying the current network.
Anyway, the point is, I think you're right: there is a market, but it may be saturated aross links, or cost/price viable markets for their surplus.
> To achieve its climate and energy goals, Europe needs to improve cross-border electricity interconnections. Connecting Europe's electricity systems will allow the EU to boost its security of electricity supply and to integrate more renewables into energy markets. ...
> The EU has set an interconnection target of at least 15% by 2030 to encourage EU countries to interconnect their installed electricity production capacity. This means that each country should have in place electricity cables that allow at least 15% of the electricity produced on its territory to be transported across its borders to neighbouring countries.
> In 2021, 16 countries reported being on track to reach that target by 2030, or have already reached the target, but more interconnections are needed in some regions.
I think HVDC interconnects are cool. No frequency concerns, and more power efficient at longer distances, especially undersea ones. And I'm amazed at what solid-state can handle these days.
As another concern about interconnects, the Wikipedia page for Icelink [1] - a proposed but unlikely connection between Iceland and Scotland - comments that Icelanders had "concerns over increased domestic energy prices in Iceland".
Seems similar to why Norway decided earlier this year to not go forward with NorthConnect. [2] "Reasons for rejecting the interconnector application includes fears that the Norwegian power grid could be exposed to the power systems of other countries, as well as an imbalance over grid capacity in the north and south of the country." [3]
