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> Mastodon will fail simply because nobody is paid to work on the project and things the core team are not good at

That's not the reason, the reason it will fail is that although federation is a strength in some ways the other way is you're putting your faith in maybe just 1 person moderating and maintaining the instance you choose. If you build your audience at one address that place might disappear overnight if that persons life circumstances change and then (correct me if I'm wrong) you need that persons permission to move to another server.



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