That's not really emergent as anyone could predict you'll reach the cookie jar after growing a certain height and reach. Emergence is really about unpredictable things.
I generally tend to agree with you. However, to give the opposing camp some credit: causation is not always so obvious. For example I don't think today's LLM capabilities followed obviously from the state of affairs in let's say 2019.
Do we call that emergence or do we use another word? I don't care, but it would certainly be nice if we could agree to use the same word :)
To stay with the cookie analogy: i guess it depends on point of view as well. Everyone who can see that i am growing can predict that I will eventually reach the jar. But if I am a cookie inside the jar I can't see that and will only notice once the jar is finally reached.
