You know what I believe is also a toy model? chatGPT Turbo, you can tell by the speed of generation. And it works quite well, so small size is not an impediment. I expect there will be an open model on the level of chatGPT by the end of the year because suddenly there are lots of interested parties and investors.
Eventually there will be a good enough model for most personal uses, our personal AI OS. When that happens there is a big chance advertising is going to be in a rough spot - personal agents can filter out anything from ads to spam and malware. Google better find another revenue source soon.
But OpenAI and other high-end LLM providers have a problem - the better these open source models become, the more market they cut underneath them. Everything open source models can do becomes "free". The best example is Dall-E vs Stable Diffusion. By the next year they will only be able to sell GPT4 and 5. AI will become a commodity soon, OpenAI won't be able to gate-keep for too long. Prices will hit rock bottom.
> I expect there will be an open model on the level of chatGPT by the end of the year because suddenly there are lots of interested parties and investors.
I really don't think you understand just how absurdly high the cost is to train models of this size (which we still don't know for sure anyways). I struggle to see what entity could afford to do this and release it as no cost. That doesn't even touch on the fact that even with unlimited money, OpenAI is still quite far ahead.
Eventually there will be a good enough model for most personal uses, our personal AI OS. When that happens there is a big chance advertising is going to be in a rough spot - personal agents can filter out anything from ads to spam and malware. Google better find another revenue source soon.
But OpenAI and other high-end LLM providers have a problem - the better these open source models become, the more market they cut underneath them. Everything open source models can do becomes "free". The best example is Dall-E vs Stable Diffusion. By the next year they will only be able to sell GPT4 and 5. AI will become a commodity soon, OpenAI won't be able to gate-keep for too long. Prices will hit rock bottom.