Even as NATO members, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania provide key sea ports. Putin is already in a thinly veiled proxy war with NATO in Ukraine anyway. The risk I'm asking about is whether this current defacto-war-with-NATO-factor may neutralize the deterrent effect of mutual defense treaty mechanisms from his perspective.
It's debatable whether there is anyone in office in a NATO country who is prepared to use nuclear weapons as a deterrent, or who has sufficient democratic political support to manage or sustain a land war. If China takes Taiwan at the same time, it's mutally beneficial for both Putin and Xi. What leader in NATO can persuasively threaten either Xi or Putin right now, let alone if they acted together?
The responses on this thread haven't really shown a capability for reasoning about the conflicts in economic or abstract terms, which is concerning because as a sample, if an inability to be clear eyed and unblinking about these things is consistent with the view of people in media policy circles, not only is there is a real risk of being blindsided, but it's evidence of a culturally held bias that creates the incentive for these powers to act.
It's debatable whether there is anyone in office in a NATO country who is prepared to use nuclear weapons as a deterrent, or who has sufficient democratic political support to manage or sustain a land war. If China takes Taiwan at the same time, it's mutally beneficial for both Putin and Xi. What leader in NATO can persuasively threaten either Xi or Putin right now, let alone if they acted together?
The responses on this thread haven't really shown a capability for reasoning about the conflicts in economic or abstract terms, which is concerning because as a sample, if an inability to be clear eyed and unblinking about these things is consistent with the view of people in media policy circles, not only is there is a real risk of being blindsided, but it's evidence of a culturally held bias that creates the incentive for these powers to act.