Russia has invaded Finland multiple times over the last few hundred years. The Finns have never perceived the risk as non-existent, and the invasion of Ukraine (coming on the heels of Georgia) makes them understandably increase their estimate of its likelihood.
Which is irrelevant to what I wrote. And the decision wasn’t made on a whim, it was made because the opportunity had arisen. Popular support was secondary. Not like they held a plebiscite or called an election over the matter.
They're literally (edit: just had their) elections on Sunday. If the polling is wrong and some significant portion of Finns oppose NATO membership, I'm sure they made themselves known.
Russia invaded under pretext of "we are afraid of NATO".
NATO in Ukraine wasn’t a pretext it was (part of) the text. People in the West really seem to think Russia invaded to satisfy some vague desire for evil and villainy. People in the West really seem to think NATO and the EU being in a (proxy) war now with Russia over Ukraine disproves Russian concerns.
It prevents Russia from attacking Finland
Which was never going to happen. Zero reason. Impossible to sell to Russia’s allies on which it so depends, if we believe Western media. (Except now, of course, Finland has gained some nuclear targets on its map, in the event of. That’s the real 5D chess.) So there must be some other punitive quality to a country on the border of Russia becoming part of NATO.
> … and Western support turned his last-minute coercive expedition into full-blown war.
His what?
Massing a hundred thousand troops on the border isn’t “last minute” and they had their sights set on a (quick) regime change after a shock and awe campaign to force surrender.
Another thing people in the West seem to earnestly believe is that this story begins on 2022-02-24 and that the use of military force renders historical context irrelevant. This standard is, of course, never applied to the military adventures of the West.
From a Russian perspective, Putin gave Ukraine 8 years to build a competitive army, with extensive NATO help. Back then, Russia could have forced a more serious settlement or regime change fairly easily. Maybe it was necessary to wait, to prepare Russian economy for the inevitable wave of sanctions. (Which, I might add, have failed spectacularly in their original, stated intent of bringing Russia to its knees.)
However, it appears that Putin really did hope for the qualified success of settlements as weak as Minsk I/II, or a possible third iteration. Coerced, if necessary. Either way, all that failed and now war is raging and hundreds of thousands of slavs (most of them from Ukraine) are dead, with many more to follow.
This is obviously not an outcome that Putin desired. This is, however, an outcome that seems to make some people in the West very happy indeed. “Weakening Russia” is what they call it, gleefully. And they keep pushing, keep stoking the fire. War is peace.
However, they deeply, fundamentally miscalculated. That will become very apparent over the next decade.
More just that he wouldn't be so stupid. People just listed all the reasons it was a dumb, short-sighted idea. Which, turns out they were right, except about how stupid Russian leadership was. They seem to have honestly believed it would be a three day war, that Ukrainians were going to welcome them as liberators, and that they actually had all the equipment that they did on paper.
The “three day war” and the other stuff have always been American talking points that have been regurgitated uncritcally a million times. Yeah, people in the West have been sold the idea that Ukraine is winning (talking about the real Ukrainian losses (not the fantasy numbers you sometimes hear) is strictly forbidded tho), I noticed. Let’s wait till it’s over I say...
I guess you don't watch Russian TV? I'm lucky (or maybe unlucky) enough to speak Russian so I have access. They say much more bombastic things than just these points all the time. They have their own reality distortion field over there and it leads them to make terrible decisions.
I'm quite certain that Russia is not secretly winning the war, but it's just that nobody can tell because of how great it's going.
Can’t watch Russian TV because the wise rulers of the superstate I reside in prevent me from doing that, for my safety. Not that I’d want to, because I don’t expect good information there either. Thankfully, there are other ways to inform oneself of the course of the war.
Well, sounds like the Ukrainian side is about to start it’s much-anticipated Decisive Battle offensive. The overall picture should become clearer once the dust from that has settled.
Talking heads on political TV shows are not politicians or affiliated with the government. Them having an intense belief in something does not mean that government officials do.
You sure seem to think you know a lot about the odds of Russia invading Finland. But unless you're privy to Putin's actual strategic plans, I'm going to trust Finland's assessment of the risk more than I'm going to trust yours.
It's rather the opposite? It prevents NATO attacks from Finland; given how piss poor of a deterrent the Russian army is now, the nukes will most likely fly in this case.
