> A good team going down 30 points in a basketball game would be extremely uncommon.
Why do you need to specify it's "a good team"? Comebacks can happen in a game between good and bad team. I checked NBA results few weeks back and every week some team loses by 30-40 points.
> If you think about goal scoring as a stochastic process where the likelihood of scoring is relative to the team's skill
Then from the Central Limit Theorem you will know that the more samples you take from a random variable - the less random the result will be. I.e. if you have a game where you take 1000 shots and whoever shots more wins - you don't have to play, the exact result is pretty much known beforehand.
Why do you need to specify it's "a good team"? Comebacks can happen in a game between good and bad team. I checked NBA results few weeks back and every week some team loses by 30-40 points.
> If you think about goal scoring as a stochastic process where the likelihood of scoring is relative to the team's skill
Then from the Central Limit Theorem you will know that the more samples you take from a random variable - the less random the result will be. I.e. if you have a game where you take 1000 shots and whoever shots more wins - you don't have to play, the exact result is pretty much known beforehand.
But less randomness is only one of the problems.