That's impossible to achieve. Not in 12 not in 50. It's not possible to cover with public transport all the places where cars can go. It's not capital nor operationally possible.
What we will have is another strong wave of population concentrating in cities. Any economic activity outside of beaten paths will be very expensive.
Because we are freaking retarded with housing in the west, people will lose the freedom private cars can give (because for most modal income people in europe, electric cars are simply not feasible), prices will increase even more. This happening while we have to deal with ageing and climate change, thus modal incomes will become efectively poor. Millions of rent slaves who have no savings and purchasing power, nor ability to scape because they can't move to live elsewhere where prices are lower, and commute to their job.
Of course a combination of market + planning could, potentially solve this (kind of). But it's not going to happen because in Europe pensioners and near-to-be-pensioners rule everything, and they are so selfish and so short-sighted that they will dry public budgets until they collapse the system.
The future of Europe is basically set in stone. France and Spain are very clear examples of what's ahead for everyone else. France on how a good chunk of the population is completely stupid and blind to the problem, and Spain on how politicians are willing to sacrifice a country to please pensioners.
> OP said "most" not "all". Rental cars for the occasional exceptions, ownership for whoever has to use them regularly, that's still basically fine.
You can't cover most either. It's only feasible for high concentrations of population.
I live in a place with a lot of population dispersion, and I see how my regional government struggles with this, for good reason. In other regions of Spain where the population is extremely concentrated this isn't much of a problem, but we do have much more economic activity going on in the countryside.
> Purchase price, or price per km? Because that's a very important difference.
> Electric is already better on the latter, even if battery costs fail to get cheaper with more scale.
It doesn't matter if people has no capital to purchase a car. In Spain (which definitely not the poorest EU country) second-hand cars lead the market. And almost nobody buys second-hand electric cars, and we all know why.
In brand new cars you can see Dacia leading the table many months.
You can try to fool people with tricks like pushing prices of gas cars up but people has no infinite pockets. Maybe in the blue banana region this is not a problem, but for everyone else a car is a tool, and it has to be affordable, easy to reapair, and last for quite a while.
Nobody in this situation is going to buy a 25k car (expensive) with extremely expensive repairs, and this is not even taking in account the extreme rent-seeking practices most brands have been practicing this years.
Even stupid people learns over time. Youngster can't afford cars in Spain. They theoretically can. If you have a job you can buy a 25k car, but you know what comes afterwards. It will sink a lot of the money you have, any problem and you'll be fucked, insurance, increasing taxes for everything, etc.
At least a second-hand Ford Focus is cheap. I can travel to the other side of the country if I need to. I can hop on it and go on a trip without much planning. Any problem means I can get my car into any repair shop and they know how to deal with it, and parts can be sourced relatively cheap.
> You can't cover most either. It's only feasible for high concentrations of population.
That's already most people all by itself.
> Nobody in this situation is going to buy a 25k car (expensive) with extremely expensive repairs, and this is not even taking in account the extreme rent-seeking practices most brands have been practicing this years.
100% with you on that; but I'm not expecting electric cars in Europe to cost that much in 2035. You can get them less than that already in Europe, and my expectation for future EU:2035 is closer to the market in China:2022 than to anything (say) Tesla is pushing.
oh we are in a covid lockdown. you can't get on this bus!
oh it says here you have emitted a lot of co2 this year. you can't rent this car until next year!
oh you were in an anti-goverment demonstration a few months ago so we know that you are headed to another one. you can't move from your 15-minute city!
> oh we are in a covid lockdown. you can't get on this bus!
Around here that seemed to be by virtue of the bus drivers not showing up because they didn't want to get ill. Nowt to do with whatever conspiracy theory you've been mainlining.
Also no causal connection to electric vehicles etc.
> oh it says here you have emitted a lot of co2 this year. you can't rent this car until next year!
Definitely hypothetical.
Also electric vehicles can be rented. Quite a few go past my flat each day.
So again, no causal connection to electric vehicles etc.
> oh you were in an anti-goverment demonstration a few months ago so we know that you are headed to another one. you can't move from your 15-minute city!
The first part of that is being done (or at least proposed) without any connection at all to electric cars or public transit.
The second part — the idea that 15 minute cities are about control — is a propaganda piece designed to rile up people like you. The reality is they're merely a fairly mild proposed planning policy to put stuff people want near those people who want that stuff, they have nothing in them about preventing people from leaving when they want to go further.
> That's impossible to achieve. Not in 12 not in 50. It's not possible to cover with public transport all the places where cars can go. It's not capital nor operationally possible.
It doesn't have to. A lot of population is urban and curbing car use in cities will be a massive improvement. So would proper train infrastructure to get between cities.
A lot of the economic activity needed to sustain cities happen elsewhere. Like farming, for example. But you also need wood, all kinds of rocks, sands, etc.
"Spain on how politicians are willing to sacrifice a country to please pensioners".
Funnily enough that is exactly what Macron is also doing, because the under-discussed part of the current reform is that it does not put in question the current pensions which are absolutely massive based on what french pensioners paid in.
But of course when you bring it up these people will try to gaslight you into the idea they built the society you enjoy today, unironically pretending that when they entered the job market in like 1965-70 Europe was still in ruins after WW2, and you simply don't want to work hard like they did.
Germany spending 100 Billion Euro to buy weapons... how many houses would that have been?
1 billion is 1000 million
100000 houses if one house costs 1 million to build, which it doesn't.
I don't agree with your pensioners hate. You will be old too some day, if you live that long. And you'll be happy to not have to filter through trash cans so you can afford to survive.
What we will have is another strong wave of population concentrating in cities. Any economic activity outside of beaten paths will be very expensive.
Because we are freaking retarded with housing in the west, people will lose the freedom private cars can give (because for most modal income people in europe, electric cars are simply not feasible), prices will increase even more. This happening while we have to deal with ageing and climate change, thus modal incomes will become efectively poor. Millions of rent slaves who have no savings and purchasing power, nor ability to scape because they can't move to live elsewhere where prices are lower, and commute to their job.
Of course a combination of market + planning could, potentially solve this (kind of). But it's not going to happen because in Europe pensioners and near-to-be-pensioners rule everything, and they are so selfish and so short-sighted that they will dry public budgets until they collapse the system.
The future of Europe is basically set in stone. France and Spain are very clear examples of what's ahead for everyone else. France on how a good chunk of the population is completely stupid and blind to the problem, and Spain on how politicians are willing to sacrifice a country to please pensioners.
It's sad, but it is what it is.