I feel like everyone is trying to draw very linear conclusions about what LLMs will affect, almost as if it's a circle that will be cut out of the market.

But if we really get to the point where programmers can be replaced with LLMs, I expect something closer to swiss cheese: For example, if you're a meat packer, maybe you work someplace that doesn't want to pay for a fancy new machine that can do your job...

But a massive plummeting in the cost of software paired with a massive spike in the rate at which we develop things means machines will cost a lot less. Who knows what kind of material sciences advancements we'll see for example.

At that point the margins may be razor thin, but automation will start to work in places where it couldn't be done profitably before. I think things get a little dystopian from there, since I'd expect the employers still holding onto humans to essentially be holding all the cards. What good is a union when the "scab" is a machine with a one time cost?

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(but again, this is all assuming LLMs reach a place that is seriously earthshattering)

The other factor is unemployed office workers competing for the remaining jobs and thus driving down wages.

Unfortunately, the great majority of these jobs are already being automated with basic robotics

How is that unfortunate?

We don't yet have UBI (and worse, countries are raising pension ages, which is the closest thing we currently have to a UBI) so everything everywhere being automated all at once is going to be messy.

Mass unemployment without adequate social safety net would be unfortunate.

Unfortunate in short term, but beneficial in long term.

Don't know which country is happily giving out redundant workers food, clothing and shelter for free

How so?

It seems like masses of people locked out of any economic growth and with no perspective are a recipe for desaster if you ask me. That's the foundation on which unrest and rebellions are built and those are usually not pleasant affairs for most people.

I'm not saying that it will come to this.

If vast swathes of the population are thrown onto the scrapheap in a relatively short period of time it absolutely would come to that. The ruling class would be smashed (literally and figuratively) and you'll wake up in the morning to discover that our form of capitalism has ceased to exist.

Unemployment —-> Crime —-> Police states —-> Societal collapse —-> Civil war like situation —-> Economy poof —-> Feudalism

Some of them, some will never be. E.g.:

* Athletes and Sports Competitors * Motorcycle Mechanics * Stonemasons

only to give some examples, where roboters are almost impossible.

Definitely