Google their presentation felt lacking. Mostly repeating AI features they already announced with some small features or expanded locations/languages to distract that their Bard is totally underwhelming.
It did not show any source links below the generated text. They did not show off any queries with super recent information.
It feels Microsoft is at least one year ahead with this Prometheus model and product work with integrations into Bing and Edge. In an interview with the Verge Microsoft CEO mentioned they already had the raw search optimised Prometheus model in mid 2022. So for Google to train a similar model optimised for search including sources will take quite a while.
It will be interesting to see if Bing market share will grow. I will certainly try it out when it is my turn on the waitlist. Google on the other hand said nothing on availability.. Showing really they were caught unprepared and that this presentation was an act of desperation.
I've gotten cynical about these AI features. I've seen that they try to outsmart me by changing my query which 95% of the time just leads to worse results. Bing is even worse than Google in this regard where I quote every word in my query and they still ignore my terms. It drives me nuts. If they want to use AI for ranking great, if the page doesn't contain my quoted terms stop including it!
I would agree if we were talking about unquoted terms. I’d like a checkbox in my account settings that make my terms act as quoted by default and I add a flag to make the search fuzzy, but at least respect the quotes, you know? Assume quotes are being used by power users and make everything else fuzzy.
OpenAI’s huge advantage is several months of training by hundreds of millions of users. Google never risked putting a chat model out into the wild for fear it would lead to embarrassing misuses - typical behavior for a giant company defending a legacy business at all costs.
OpenAI has no such legacy business to defend and so was free to take the risk.
Apparently this is a contrarian take, but Google is in no way in danger of being disrupted by OpenAI.
The scale they have means that they could reduce that "advantage" in a matter of hours if they wanted to. 100m monthly active users vs Google 4.3b daily active users.
The compute they have can train more/better models than they can, and they have been working on this for longer than OpenAI has (see their keynote in 2017, Chatbot that got the guy fired because he thought it was sentient)
Microsoft helps here, but all of those things still exist. Bing is tiny compared to Google.
Microsoft will "win" the productivity tools (Teams, Office, etc.) for the same reason Google will win search.
Since Microsoft was working internally on the raw search optimised Prometheus model since mid 2022, and Google did not show any chat results showing sources. My bet will be that Google won't even show sources below Bard results even a year from now. And this difference alone and with Microsoft already starting the first rollout of Bing Chat, I feel Bing will have gained a lot of marketshare in a year. Bing can only win and Google only lose with the current marketshare numbers.
Material means are but one small step in this whole process.
> Happy to be quoted on this in a year or so.
Look back at the last 5-10 years and you'll have you answer. They're too busy sabotaging their search engine, cramping ads in youtube and cancelling products. Too big to fail but not too big to stall
We simply don't know how early these megacorps started to work on these things. Remember the chatbot Tay? That was 2016 and I would say it was pretty advanced. Still NLP, just not LLM (I think). Google has the data advantage, but OpenAI basically has all the AI tech Microsoft has developed and I don't think Microsoft is that far behind google in term of innovations and patents.
In fact, Microsoft has better track record in releasing and commercializing new tech. Google is good at half assing new tech and throw them in a pile of garbage later.
> The scale they have means that they could reduce that "advantage" in a matter of hours if they wanted to. 100m monthly active users vs Google 4.3b daily active users.
I’m not so sure they have the Datacenter capacity with GPU’s to make that happen overnight, even if they have the software. They have an advantage in the demand side of that equation, but the supply side (datacenters, capacity) is a real challenge not to be overlooked.
With the current state of international relations and supply chain disruptions continuing to ripple from the pandemic, if I needed to rely on being able to quickly access a large number of GPUs or other microprocessors, I'd be very nervous right now. Not sure Google is even wake enough to see any of this.
Training is not the issue. Each company already has a trained model that is useful for a wide range of tasks. Inference is the problem. Nobody has the infrastructure to run these models at scale. Until they do, they have to pick and choose the most valuable places to deploy them.
This thing is taking off like wildfire. Google has very good reason to be terrified. This kind of growth is quite likely indicative of a major disruption.
Microsoft stated in an interview with The Verge that they were working with this new search optimised Prometheus model since mid 2022. Months before the release of ChatGPT and the big inflow of data from real users. So this Prometheus model was created with different purposes since it can show sources and can be updated with new information on the fly. So it is quite ahead of ChatGPT. Microsoft is taking it with the direct access of OpenAI tech to the next level.
The early days of Google were magical, with its ability to answer our questions instantly and without distractions. It's a shame that now, ads and SEO strategies have taken over and made the search process more cumbersome. It feels OpenAI's public chat bot has the potential to bring back that simple, distraction-free experience of finding information. However this simplicity feels in conflict with how Google as an advertising company makes it's money.
> bring back that simple, distraction-free experience of finding information
This is what I got with Kagi which is why I switched to it. I'm pretty hard to please and always have nits so it's rare I'd cheerlead for a brand but the product is great. If anything my fear is that it'll be like everything else that was good at first: pressure to grow skyrockets the price, or they succumb to the pressure to mine/sell data, ads, etc. Time will tell.
That last part is key: search didn’t just happen to get worse, chasing ad revenue made it that way. Once Google started allowed ethically dubious SEO like Quora’s search cloaking it marked the end of the era where search quality was the main focus.
It’s very easy to imagine tools like ChatGPT following a similar arc, only harder to discern if it’s not legally required to mark when advice is sponsored.
Drip-feeding? How about BOILING THE FROG. A.I. isn't our friend here. With all the censorship Google and other bigtech companies have been repeatedly caught doing, it's just another way of taking out the censorship middle-man, now without human accountability or oversight.
It did not show any source links below the generated text. They did not show off any queries with super recent information.
It feels Microsoft is at least one year ahead with this Prometheus model and product work with integrations into Bing and Edge. In an interview with the Verge Microsoft CEO mentioned they already had the raw search optimised Prometheus model in mid 2022. So for Google to train a similar model optimised for search including sources will take quite a while.
It will be interesting to see if Bing market share will grow. I will certainly try it out when it is my turn on the waitlist. Google on the other hand said nothing on availability.. Showing really they were caught unprepared and that this presentation was an act of desperation.