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> You are trying to time the market.

Maybe, but they said they're going into bonds here which seems like a pretty safe move at this point (unless you expect substantially higher interest rates from here - I think that's unlikely, more likely rates will plateau after a couple more Fed increases and stay there for a while).

I can get close to 4.8% on 26 week t-bills right now, do you think I can get that kind of return in the stock market (index funds) over the next 6 months? Maybe, but I'd rather go with the safer bet on t-bills here. (Sure, there's a non-zero possibility that the clowns in Washington will do something stupid that leads to a [likely short-term] default, but if that were to happen stocks and pretty much everything else would tank as well)




If you need the return in the next 6 months that’s not timing the market and putting it in equities would be bad even if you expected equities to out perform bonds. Having your portfolio invested in different things based on investment horizon is a normal part of portfolio design.

Timing the market is changing that distribution based on your opinion of what the markets will do.




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