Everything I know about career comes from the 08-now era, but what I've seen has always been this:
1. Not all of the economy declines at once. Someone is hiring for something.
2. There is always a new trend spinning up. The trend may originate from the research sector, a government policy shift, or a large firm that has deployed a new business strategy. Those things result in new possibilities in the global supply chain, and therefore business formation and expansion.
3. When the trend is in its early stages - before it enters any hype cycle - you have to be on it and present yourself in a way that makes you "the person to seek out for x". If you get on and stay on, you get swept up in the resulting demand for skilled work.
4. Everything else is a continuation of that. Being a later hire means you're less central, and therefore less rewarded. When the trend ends you have to exit to a new one to have a continuation, otherwise the career is most likely going to have a gradual fade into obscurity.
All the more cosmetic stuff about whom to contact and how to contact them ranks beneath the macro trend positioning that makes you be near where the money is currently flowing, and part of the story of this recession is that the world's nations are all making big, strategic policy changes that redefine their economies.
What is probably going away: The leadership of the FAANG framework. The companies themselves will mostly stay around, but their scaling is done, and now it is about time for many of their products to be chipped away at by a swarm of new approaches, as has happened in past eras of software.
What is going to be interesting: AI, but not the nuts-and-bolts of machine learning. Those careers are made already, and you're way more likely to be acting as a consumer/integrator of their output. AI products and services in the larger view are still finding their way - approaches to integration, UX and so on.
Anything that deals with energy infrastructure and transport problems may be interesting. "ESG" is being pursued top down from Davos, and will change policies in many local governments. Software will be part of it, but it might be hard to find a niche that isn't occupied already. See Tony Seba's lectures for a sense of what might be opening up soon.
Crypto tokens have just hit another winter cycle. They are not dead at all; what the last cycle did is test the outer limits of schemes that misapply the tech, and a lot of "blockchain" companies were just that. The tech itself never broke in some fundamental way. It is ultimately another form of information system, one that indexes trades and valuations. The specifics of what is tracked in the system, the scale it should reach, and how secure it needs to be are still uncharted. It takes a creative mind to come up with experiments that reach beyond mimicry of traditional finance, but we're right around that point now. I'm following along with it; it could be interesting. Not one for finding a traditional job though, I think.
1. Not all of the economy declines at once. Someone is hiring for something.
2. There is always a new trend spinning up. The trend may originate from the research sector, a government policy shift, or a large firm that has deployed a new business strategy. Those things result in new possibilities in the global supply chain, and therefore business formation and expansion.
3. When the trend is in its early stages - before it enters any hype cycle - you have to be on it and present yourself in a way that makes you "the person to seek out for x". If you get on and stay on, you get swept up in the resulting demand for skilled work.
4. Everything else is a continuation of that. Being a later hire means you're less central, and therefore less rewarded. When the trend ends you have to exit to a new one to have a continuation, otherwise the career is most likely going to have a gradual fade into obscurity.
All the more cosmetic stuff about whom to contact and how to contact them ranks beneath the macro trend positioning that makes you be near where the money is currently flowing, and part of the story of this recession is that the world's nations are all making big, strategic policy changes that redefine their economies.
What is probably going away: The leadership of the FAANG framework. The companies themselves will mostly stay around, but their scaling is done, and now it is about time for many of their products to be chipped away at by a swarm of new approaches, as has happened in past eras of software.
What is going to be interesting: AI, but not the nuts-and-bolts of machine learning. Those careers are made already, and you're way more likely to be acting as a consumer/integrator of their output. AI products and services in the larger view are still finding their way - approaches to integration, UX and so on.
Anything that deals with energy infrastructure and transport problems may be interesting. "ESG" is being pursued top down from Davos, and will change policies in many local governments. Software will be part of it, but it might be hard to find a niche that isn't occupied already. See Tony Seba's lectures for a sense of what might be opening up soon.
Crypto tokens have just hit another winter cycle. They are not dead at all; what the last cycle did is test the outer limits of schemes that misapply the tech, and a lot of "blockchain" companies were just that. The tech itself never broke in some fundamental way. It is ultimately another form of information system, one that indexes trades and valuations. The specifics of what is tracked in the system, the scale it should reach, and how secure it needs to be are still uncharted. It takes a creative mind to come up with experiments that reach beyond mimicry of traditional finance, but we're right around that point now. I'm following along with it; it could be interesting. Not one for finding a traditional job though, I think.