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> I am not sure it is realistic to expect that all the good engineers never get promoted and that there would still be something good coming out over time.

I have heard lots of stories about how the only real way to get promotion/real raise was to change company you work for. Because getting raise is harder compared to hiring someone of the street with hefty premium on top.



     I have heard lots of stories about how the 
     only real way to get promotion/real raise 
     was to change company you work for.
That's definitely the best way. Here's my take. I am ignoring promotions/raises given to junior/intern type employees who become regular engineers.

80% of engineering promotions/raises come from switching companies

10% of engineering promotions/raises come from doing greenfield work. If you can find a way to do greenfield work you will look great (because you can move fast) and multiple other people will be dependent on the mess you left behind and they will look bad because they are moving at a fraction of your speed.

10% of engineering promotions/raises come from engineers who show obvious managerial talent and are interested in a managerial role

0% of engineering promotions/raises come from maintaining somebody else's system




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