As soon as any EV actually threatens Tesla’s spot on top of the premium mass market, then Tesla will whip out advanced battery tech that they are sitting on that will enable them to crush the competition in terms of range/weight ratios and pricing flexibility that gives them.
I’m not saying this as a fanboy, rather as someone who is willing to acknowledge the lead in batteries that Tesla has on everyone else.
Tesla’s moat is in their battery tech, and I think that they will be able to maintain this moat for at least five years, perhaps more. They need to catch up in manufacture and design in order to remain competitive, but I think that they can do that.
What lead? 99% of their battery volume is coming from Panasonic or CATL or other chinese manufacturer, Their 4680 cell has same power density as panasonic as of today and they are only producing a tiny tiny volume today.
Do you think current production is the best they have?
I don’t.
The current production battery is most likely the most cost-efficient in terms of getting them into cars at the volume required, but I imagine that this could change very quickly if deemed necessary.
Is there anything in Tesla's history that would lead you to believe they'd be sitting on some technology and not making announcements every few months about their amazing progress on it and imminent production of it?
Tesla is much more likely to announce a great new battery before they've even started working on it than after it's almost ready.
They absolutely are not going to announce/reveal their moat, especially when it loses a lot of its value as a moat when it is revealed.
It seems like there are some doubters here.
Just remember that you heard it here first when it happens.
Expect 500-600 mile range for current vehicle line and substantially lower prices for current “long”range of ~320 miles, probably sold as one-motor “standard range” in order to keep the markets siloed.
The current energy density of their batteries is pretty much at the theoretical limit of the “lithium-ion” chemistry. Unless they are sitting on a new battery chemistry, which I doubt, they would need to develop a new one.
You said battery technology lead. Tesla is a battery manufacturing tech laggard. Tesla will ramp up but their current suppliers are not going to be sitting still.
Tesla told everybody their advanced battery tech on battery day. It's coming, and it's impressive, but so is the new stuff from CATL et al. Not a massive advantage they have in their back pocket, and it's not secret.
What Tesla does have is a massive margin. If/when they are ever threatened, they have lots of room to cut prices. AFAICT, given the choice Elon would rather cut prices than margin.
I don't quite understand the strategy of sitting and waiting on a technology competitive advantage. Surely, to get the technology ramped up and integrated into their manufacturing process isn't an instantaneous thing?
I do agree that Tesla's entire value is in their battery tech. Their 'premium' cars are actually about on par with Korean and Japanese mid-tier vehicles in terms of quality at best, by every objective measure. But their pricing is luxury level simply due to the cost of batteries.
> I don't quite understand the strategy of sitting and waiting on a technology competitive advantage.
1. Utilizing current facilities, thereby being able to spread out the fixed cost of building a manufacturing plant over more units.
2. Related to 1, waiting until building new facilities is necessary to be competitive in order to be able to use the most up-to-date battery design as well as most up-to-date facilities design.
3. Keep the design a secret as long as possible. I’m not sure if its possible to keep battery tech a secret, but if there is no functioning version, then it can’t be reverse engineered.
> Their 'premium' cars are actually about on par with Korean and Japanese mid-tier vehicles in terms of quality at best, by every objective measure. But their pricing is luxury level simply due to the cost of batteries.
I’m not saying this as a fanboy, rather as someone who is willing to acknowledge the lead in batteries that Tesla has on everyone else.
Tesla’s moat is in their battery tech, and I think that they will be able to maintain this moat for at least five years, perhaps more. They need to catch up in manufacture and design in order to remain competitive, but I think that they can do that.