Personal intuition, feel free to dismiss.

Makes sense, and seems like a sensible prior.

It just strikes me as something that wouldn’t be particularly hard to answer with a detailed study, and probably is a pretty high value question to answer, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a study.

Maybe I’ll poke around this weekend

I agree with your sentiment however it reminds me a lot of the leet code style interviews and all their downsides.