Do you think the Russian armed forces can redeploy from Ukraine (while holding onto their invasion gains there) and launch a successful attack against NATO members?
Not from Ukraine. I'm not sure if there are forces in the Kaliningrad region though. But you're right. Poland is a NATO country and that would be very unlikely.
Probably because it's become painfully clear just how poorly prepared the Russian armed forces are for this, or any, modern conflict. Their equipment is old and badly maintained, their personnel are ill-trained and have low morale, and their intelligence appears to be of the "tell the egomaniac dictator what he wants to hear" variety rather than the "get the best information, no matter what it may imply about relative strengths or whatever" variety.
Putin tried for months to secure Ukraine and is being pushed back. He's instituted a draft to replace lost personnel there, and over a hundred thousand able-bodied Russians have fled the country rather than take the risk that they're called up.
I wouldn't put the odds at zero (because Putin is also not the most stable and sensible person), but it seems very unlikely that he would even try to send troops to open up a completely new front, against actual NATO members, let alone succeed in any meaningful way.
Frankly it's more dangerous now than it's been at any time since the 80s. Russian forces are so weak that basically any confrontation with Western powers is going to be nuclear from the very start. The fact Western powers haven't said that a tactical nuclear strike inside Ukraine will be responded to in kind is basically permission on a silver platter for Putin to do so.
I thought they did say, or it leaked out that they have told the Russians: they would respond with conventional airstrikes to destroy all Russian military personnel and equipment in Ukraine, including Crimea.
