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Couple thoughts:

AppsLib.com claims to be on 2M tablets [1]. Amazon will be on nearly 3x that soon, so you say, but guess what: That's not NEARLY enough.

My game was the #2 app overall on AppsLib for over two weeks. I got so many downloads that I could...just about buy a sandwich from the ad revenues. As long as it wasn't a premium sandwich.

More than 6M Android phones ship every 11 days. Probably every 10 days or less at this point -- the 550k/day number I used to calculate that is a few months old. A year ago I heard from one developer that their top game was pulling in $5000/day in ad revenues. Back then the iPhone had much larger numbers than Android.

Maybe paid apps will be better, but as the article points out, Amazon has a REALLY bad deal for app providers who are charging for apps. They can cut your price in half without asking, and you get half the normal commission! They can even give it away for free, and only pay you 20% of list price! Oh, and if you ever have a one-day sale on another site for the same app, then they can just cut your list price (and commission) permanently!

No, I don't think 6M tablets are going to overthrow Google's Market. In fact, I think that when people discover that the Kindle Fire doesn't have GPS, a camera, the free 3G of the older Kindles, or any of the Google apps that make Android shine, that there will be a consumer backlash. The Kindle Fire is a fancy eReader that can use SOME Android apps, and that's it. It may be enough for a lot of people, but it won't be long for other Android tablets to come out at the same price point. Like Lenovo [2].

[1] http://appslib.com/developers/index.html

[2] http://www.pcworld.com/article/239328/lenovo_heats_up_price_...



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