Seems that since Euler developed exponential functions (circa the enlightenment), exponential growth of knowledge and economies and exponential improvement in the human condition have become the standard expectation for the enlightened world, replacing the previous standard expectation of alternating good times and bad times. The optimists and the winners over the recent centuries have been able to make a good case that this change in thinking has not been completely discredited by experience. Does that mean that the good times are here to stay?
A reasonable attempt at an unbiased point of view on this issue would acknowledge some kind of selection effect -- one would expect that a few hundred years experience would appear particularly favorable to civilizations and cultures that you get after a few hundred years of that same experience, so maybe things are not objectively quite as good as they look to us.
A simple statistical estimate of how long the current era might be sustained can be made by coming up with a number for how long it has already been here, and considering ourselves as occurring at a uniformly random point in its total lifetime. That procedure produces ~90% certainty that things will continue as is for at least 1/20th as long as the era has been here but not more than 20 times as long. For example, if you put the start of the era of technological progress around 1620, this kind of know-nothing (about specific current conditions) estimate would put us 90% sure that it will last at least another 20 years, but not more than 8000 years. YMMV.
A reasonable attempt at an unbiased point of view on this issue would acknowledge some kind of selection effect -- one would expect that a few hundred years experience would appear particularly favorable to civilizations and cultures that you get after a few hundred years of that same experience, so maybe things are not objectively quite as good as they look to us.
A simple statistical estimate of how long the current era might be sustained can be made by coming up with a number for how long it has already been here, and considering ourselves as occurring at a uniformly random point in its total lifetime. That procedure produces ~90% certainty that things will continue as is for at least 1/20th as long as the era has been here but not more than 20 times as long. For example, if you put the start of the era of technological progress around 1620, this kind of know-nothing (about specific current conditions) estimate would put us 90% sure that it will last at least another 20 years, but not more than 8000 years. YMMV.