Even if the already-invested money can’t be recouped, marginal additional investment could theoretically be with favorable (LIFO) terms offered typically offered to later investment.
So sure, acknowledge a bad $300 million bet, but then throw your next $50 million at the same bet if it looks like the best place to put a marginal $50 million.
I don’t always think investors are doing this rationally - sunk cost fallacy / gamblers paradox / greater fool theory / FOMO all play a part, but also recognize that lots of these super large investments are led by a small team using lots of other peoples money so there are ways for the decision-makers to come out closer to breakeven if much of the pot is lost.
Also with potential IPO’s and sky high rate of valuation growth over the past decade, the “greater fool theory” isn’t necessarily an irrational motivation to invest.
So sure, acknowledge a bad $300 million bet, but then throw your next $50 million at the same bet if it looks like the best place to put a marginal $50 million.
I don’t always think investors are doing this rationally - sunk cost fallacy / gamblers paradox / greater fool theory / FOMO all play a part, but also recognize that lots of these super large investments are led by a small team using lots of other peoples money so there are ways for the decision-makers to come out closer to breakeven if much of the pot is lost.
Also with potential IPO’s and sky high rate of valuation growth over the past decade, the “greater fool theory” isn’t necessarily an irrational motivation to invest.
Not all smart investments are value-based.