I agree, it will take some time for EVs to really take off. And the dynamics are difficult to predict. If even 5% of cars become electric, it will really move the needle on the retail gas pricing, which might slow EV adoption, etc. I expect it might go in waves. Although EVs have such a dramatic running cost advantage that as capital costs and range anxieties are addressed, the adoption rate will probably be supply limited for years.
EV growth of the last few years was nothing compared to the increase size of the average car (more SUV and pickup sales in proportion, compared to standard “cars”).
So really the EV market is still insignificant and gaz consumption for the average household has gone up, not down.
>gaz consumption for the average household has gone up, not down.
Historical data shows that overall gas consumption is more strongly linked to the frequency of highway travel than to recent changes in car purchases. See:
There's a drop during the Great Recession, a rapid rise during the recovery, and a roughly flat line during the Trump administration until another crater during the COVID pandemic.
