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The only way I can understand the Efficient Markets Hypothesis is as a way for academic economists to explain why they personally have not gotten rich trading stocks.


If you’re actually curious about the EMH, you should really read something deeper than non-finance people paraphrasing it poorly.


Finance people (well, the ones that actually make money trading) don't put much stock in EMH either..


I assume you mean they don’t put much stock in the strong EMH - Which is true, but the concept is the underpinning of most risk-weighted investing and some form of it (eg weak or semi-strong EMH) lines up nicely with why index funds outperform on a very broad basis.

I’m trying to think of a good analogy to CS.. maybe “Good engineers don’t put much stock in artificial intelligence”


Can you please cite some of these references?


It's a really approachable theory and contrary to what you'll read in tech message boards - doesn't remotely boil down to "the market can't be wrong". Burton Malkiel (economist most famous for writing "A Random Walk Down Wall St" and being a longtime advisor of Vanguard) has a paper talking about the early 2000's pushback.

It gives a good summation / spells out some critiques / offers his reasons for disagreeing:

https://www.princeton.edu/~ceps/workingpapers/91malkiel.pdf


Thank you very much




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