Extremely doubtful that we'll see Ubuntu as a contender to iOS and Android.
If you're going to run linux on a tablet-sized device, why not just use Android? It has an existing application store(s), and more importantly an existing userbase.
Look at WebOS, if there's any competition out there to compete with Android or iOS WebOS would be the best option. From everything I've seen and heard it is quite fantastic. If not slightly buggy and a little slow. It wasn't executed well by HP or Palm but there's obvious potential.
I figure, if Palm and HP can't compete with Android and iOS, there's no way Ubuntu is going to do it.
I'll happily be proven wrong if they do, but I just can't see it.
Android is 'built on' Linux but it doesn't expose Linux to users in any remotely meaningful way (contrast, for example, with Maemo).
I agree with you that it's doubtful, but if Ubuntu doesn't do it then I just don't think it can be done - Fedora and Debian aren't even going to try and most other distros don't even have the resources to start.
I know that Android is built on linux. But I don't see that as being hugely important. It's about the interface and the "mindshare" of the users and particularly the developers if you want to have a solid app selection for those users.
There's going to be a huge issue with ANY new platform. It's the chicken and the egg all over again.
Apple created a platform and got a bunch of users interested because the product was so mindblowingly refreshing amid all the crap phones available to consumers at the time. While applications weren't available from the get go, the users loved the phone despite the lack of apps.
When the app store was made available in the second iOS release allowing developers to make applications for those phones it effectively bypassed the chicken and egg problem.
Take a look at WebOS. It was unique and refreshing although not mindblowingly refreshing like the iPhone/iPad were. Thus, it's userbase was small and it's developer base even smaller. Developers wouldn't look at the platform because there weren't enough users. Users won't look at it because of the lack of applications.
Many of the original iPhone purchasers were tech savy people. They were the only people willing to spend $500-600 on a phone. People always ask those tech savy people for advice. Those tech savy people say "I love my iphone and here's why." But the same didn't happen with WebOS because the tech savy people wouldn't buy the device because it lacked apps. At least, not until the TouchPad hit $99 anyway.
What makes you think Ubuntu has a chance here? Seriously. Granted, I will give you one thing about Ubuntu and that's at least that they're trying to provide a consistent experience. Which is assbackwards from Linux in general with the Gnome, KDE, Enlightenment, Xfce, XMonad blah blah blah. Sure, those give you choice. But on a tablet or phone, choice isn't always a good thing, at least not the same level of choice you find on a desktop.
But I just don't see Ubuntu as a possible threat to anything here at all. As someone else already mentioned, if someone wants a tablet OS, just fork Android and run with it. At least you have a working base for something that's already seen success. You can mold it into something unique like Amazon and B&N did. I don't think Ubuntu can compete.
If you're going to run linux on a tablet-sized device, why not just use Android? It has an existing application store(s), and more importantly an existing userbase.
Look at WebOS, if there's any competition out there to compete with Android or iOS WebOS would be the best option. From everything I've seen and heard it is quite fantastic. If not slightly buggy and a little slow. It wasn't executed well by HP or Palm but there's obvious potential.
I figure, if Palm and HP can't compete with Android and iOS, there's no way Ubuntu is going to do it.
I'll happily be proven wrong if they do, but I just can't see it.