US is in great shape, Europe very far from great shape, RotW alternatively suffering collateral damage via increased prices / lack of supply and taking advantage of lowered prices / increase in supply
Working in the sense that they are hurting Russia and hampering its capability to wage war(s).
Sanctions are hard for Europe and there's a growing argument, in Europe, that they only benefit the US without being effective, and that they should be abandoned.
As a European, I think this line of reasoning is extremely wrong, defeatist and careless.
Sanctions are necessary even if they don't work, because of the message they send. But if they do work, so much the better.
the consequences for Europe may be bearable for the moment but I suspect will have long lasting manifestations down the line which might shift the calculus, as economic pain is felt by the people, who will shift the politics of every country to the right. Italy will be the first, Scholz will be the last Chancellor of the SPD, Macron will give away to the right when his term ends.
all this may still be 'worth it', tho at some point enough people in European democracies might disagree. Their answer might be quite unpalatable
I wonder if it really is true that the sanctions don’t affect the US. After all in this globalized world there are chain reactions that are not immediately visible.
Nevertheless assuming the statement is true: Does the high value of military support of the US compared to, f.e. Germany, set of the better economic situation?
LNG will be exported to Europe. Prices for gas will go up in the US. People in the US a very price sensitive. Worst case: Kazachstan style unrests in parts of the southern states.
Not only this; Europe is heading towards pretty rough waters in short and long term. Cheap energy from Russia will have to flow somewhere and it will be not Europe. Europe needs this cheap energy though to keep its competitive advantage. Instead countries such as China and India will get yet another edge and will be able to compete even further.
In the short term we will see civil unrest and populism rising as this war against Russia is currently mainly supported by Western propaganda. I give it 3-6 more months until oppositions start to form.
Sanctions against Russia sure work, but they are cracking, too. Exceptions are being made already, gaps are filled by Chinese competitors, 80% of Russians are supporting this "operation" and see the reasons given by President Putin confirmed. Those people know how to suffer, remember the Crazy 90s when the West was celebrating in ecstasy while the Russians lost all their money, went down into a corrupt mafia swamp, GDP fell to 1960s levels, braindrain set in, life expectancy fell by 10(!!!!!) years? The Russians can suffer, the West cannot.
My worst case prediction is that Europe will be the loser of this conflict: populism, stagnation, GDP growth WAY below the US and China, Euro-crisis, inflation, political fights and blocks between EU member states, constantly high energy prices at 50 cents per kwh, loss of utopia, further fragmentation, migrant crisis.
Best case would be to demilitrize Ukraine, make a deal with Russia and go back to what is was before. Accept that Russia felt threatened by NATO, address this. De-couple from the US, make Europe strong, create our own army and nuclear deterance, but not expand towards Russia. Make proper contracts with them and adhere to them. But this is not acceptable because of PUTIN=HITLER arguments.
Real politics is dead. Value politics are killing us.
You are saying that you believe the best case is to validate Russian aggression by giving them what they want. This is a retreat from modernity and validates the use of force over diplomacy.
Russia does not have a right not to feel threatened (fundamentally an arbitrary, fuzzy measure), and we should not entertain such a fantasy.
> Best case would be to demilitrize Ukraine, make a deal with Russia and go back to what is was before. Accept that Russia felt threatened by NATO, address this. De-couple from the US, make Europe strong, create our own army and nuclear deterance, but not expand towards Russia. Make proper contracts with them and adhere to them. But this is not acceptable because of PUTIN=HITLER arguments.
Would not the best case be to demilitarise the country that’s currently committing genocide in Ukraine?, and not to validate their ‘might is right’ beliefs?.
Anyone ‘decoupling’ from the US is a mistake, the US carry’s they biggest stick in the yard and it’s the only thing ‘might is right’ countries like Russia understand.
US is in great shape, Europe very far from great shape, RotW alternatively suffering collateral damage via increased prices / lack of supply and taking advantage of lowered prices / increase in supply