Because my youngest daughter's generation, who will be entering schools in 4-5 years is 20% smaller than the year before her. COVID has done a number on people's decisions to have children.
Why wouldn't you have to fire 20% of teachers. If you have 100 kids and 4 teachers and now only have 75 kids the next year... one has to go? I'm not some public school polemicist. I'm just pointing out reality.
What makes you think it's 1-2 years of lower birthrate. The US birthrate is trending down as is. COVID likely just accelerated it. This is not about what I want; but a description of what is.
> Then also - how are we not sure that there would not be an uptick in population in 2022 and beyond to compensate for those who delayed kids due to covid uncertainty
That is not what the data show. COVID + a looming recession and people have not been having children.
So I did some reading to examine the idea that there would be an uptick. While it's true there was an uptick, of sorts. It didn't meet the downward trend, and as the article I read points out, economics is really what dicctates it. With rampant inflation that some predict will last several years, and high volatility, I don't see how we're going to get some magic baby boom. Perhaps by the time by youngest is in high school. The last inflationary period of the 70s lasted almost a decade.
Why wouldn't you have to fire 20% of teachers. If you have 100 kids and 4 teachers and now only have 75 kids the next year... one has to go? I'm not some public school polemicist. I'm just pointing out reality.
What makes you think it's 1-2 years of lower birthrate. The US birthrate is trending down as is. COVID likely just accelerated it. This is not about what I want; but a description of what is.
> Then also - how are we not sure that there would not be an uptick in population in 2022 and beyond to compensate for those who delayed kids due to covid uncertainty
That is not what the data show. COVID + a looming recession and people have not been having children.
So I did some reading to examine the idea that there would be an uptick. While it's true there was an uptick, of sorts. It didn't meet the downward trend, and as the article I read points out, economics is really what dicctates it. With rampant inflation that some predict will last several years, and high volatility, I don't see how we're going to get some magic baby boom. Perhaps by the time by youngest is in high school. The last inflationary period of the 70s lasted almost a decade.
Where I'm sourcing data: https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2022/06/the-pandemic-...
So again, are we to keep teachers around without need for potentially a decade? Why?