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Have just seen it many times, specifically in finance, the risk complexity of which is really hard to understand, and which has an equilibrium of stasis punctuated with earthquake-level surprises that make even careful bets into speculations into existential threats more quickly than most people are able to respond. Fraud is a catchall for a really wide range of often unintentional outcomes. Incompetence rather than malice, though the common behaviors both of information hiding and cutting customer hair rather than one's own shades awfully close to malice, even if they are in compliance with terms and disclosures.


Very early on in my MBA, I ran a pretty simple simulation of different investment strategies with different expected returns and different tail distributions. Each round, new money entered the market and was distributed based on previous empirical returns.

The result was the same “slow up fast down” sawtooth we see in the real market, and investments that had real alpha were crowded out by investments that simply pushed risk into the tails. It took like an hour to assemble that agent-based simulation and it scared me out of finance. Most financial engineering seems to just be Martingale betting schemes that guarantee small to modest returns 99% of the time.




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