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I found that analysis of the big picture problems fairly insightful. Many of the stories I hear about working in production companies, especially during the big Amazon/Netflix competition for projects, felt exactly like the heyday of the dot com boom. Money was being thrown at anyone who had a 'hint' even of creating something big and as a result a lot of money got spent pretty uselessly.

I've also been a long time Netflix user from their DVD days to the present and while I did not feel like streaming would be the hit they did (I was totally wrong on that count!) I note that the streaming model had an interesting impact on control.

Specifically with the DVD model, Netflix could go out and buy some number of copies of a movie as soon as it hit the shelves and now you, as a subscriber, could watch it without forking over the $20 - $30. Since they had lots and lots of DVDs you could always find something you would probably like. But in the streaming model this changes. Now the people who "own" the content just rent it to Netflix and once that rental term expires it goes "poof" and vanishes.

Two things then emerged, the content holders created their own streaming service and stopped renting out their content, and Netflix's catalog of things to watch shrank so a customer who watched something before and liked it, and then went to watch it again couldn't find it.

That customer experience, going to a service for a product that was available before but isn't now, and is only available for additional money elsewhere, is a strong negative influence on the "let's find something to watch on Netflix habit."

Once the state of mind changes to (it probably won't be on Netflix any more) then the only reason you watch Netflix is because they advertised something new and you're going to watch it this month before it vanishes. And that can lead to months where you don't watch Netflix at all, and of course that often results in re-evaluating what you are spending per month on a service you aren't using every month.

The market response has been pretty predictable, groups who each sign up for one streaming service and share their passwords with other members of the group so they get access to the aggregated catalogs of a number of services with the monthly cost of one service. Service providers have hinted that they are going to "clamp down" on that sort of thing, but one thing that Netflix proved quite clearly was that "Piracy" was a response to cost and cost alone. Content providers really only have two choices[1], share the content at a price people are willing to pay, or collect nothing as your content is shared for free.

There is some hysteresis here, people put up with a lot of crap until they flip over to "alternative access methods" and then it takes a much lower price than you could have gotten before to get them to switch back to the paid access method.

[1] There is a third choice, lock up the content forever, but that is like the null choice for most content providers.



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