> I am materially wrong about the most consequential thing I've had to have a view on in 15 years. You should probably degrade your estimate of my ability to think through complex problems.
> Japan will face a national health crisis within a month.
Of course, he then edited it with a framing in which he claims:
> The core result was correct.
> ...
> This prediction was correct.
So not only was he wrong, he refuses to acknowledge or understand how and why he was wrong. And continues to tweet hashes as though we should give anything he says any merit whatsoever.
How was he wrong? I remember this dust up but only now having actually read the whitepaper I see he was extremely alarmed by covid-19, which was entirely correct.
Further, it's apparently a very common thing in cybersecurity circles (though I've worked in cybersecurity for a decade and don't recognize the idiom, but my experience is more in software dev than research), so I don't really get why he'd stop even if he got a prediction wrong.
Wait, so on March 25, 2020 he predicted that there was going to be a coronavirus pandemic (and that Japan would be impacted)? The WHO had already declared a global pandemic on March 12, 2020 and there was no reason to believe that Japan or any other country would be spared.
0: The tweet: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1241551327743770624
The, ah, assertion: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1241553311024603140
> I am materially wrong about the most consequential thing I've had to have a view on in 15 years. You should probably degrade your estimate of my ability to think through complex problems.
The prediction: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1252584289486565377
which is a link to https://www.kalzumeus.com/2020/04/21/japan-coronavirus/ , which states, on April 4 2020:
> Japan will face a national health crisis within a month.
Of course, he then edited it with a framing in which he claims:
> The core result was correct.
> ...
> This prediction was correct.
So not only was he wrong, he refuses to acknowledge or understand how and why he was wrong. And continues to tweet hashes as though we should give anything he says any merit whatsoever.