There are some limitations to the metaphor but I think it illustrates the point.

it doesnt illustrate anything, because the turkey situation assumes that there's a higher power controlling the stock market.

I don’t think that interpretation of the metaphor is intended. Just that something good can happen many times and be followed unexpectedly and suddenly by something bad.

And that's why i said the analogy is not illustrative of anything - because you dont know the future at all, and there's no precedent for that bad future. You don't prepare for such a future at the cost of the current time.

If you switched the turkey to a pet cat, would the analogy still make sense?