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I hope this is true but I also feel like we no longer follow any kind of logic after 2008, we totally detached from reality.


> I [...] feel like we no longer follow any kind of logic after 2008, we totally detached from reality.

What does it mean we have detached from reality? That valuations are not what they should be? What exactly should they be then? Who should be deciding these things?

And a bonus question: Why do you think the current valuations are what they are?


No value anymore, only speculation.

houses for sale getting 30+ bids 200k over asking, buyers waiving all contingencies including appraisal gaps and inspections

some houses going for $400k+ over asking

EV companies valued at billions of dollars with <$50,000 in total revenue

retail tripping over themselves to buy SPACs before the SPACs even announce what company is merging with them

there was no repurcussion to the 2008 crimes. have been ingested into the system, not a doomsayer but hope the most egregious speculators get bankrupted it won't happen - we are in full bizzarro clown world.


"Fake it till you make It" implies when you make it, stop faking it.

We apparently didn't "make it" enough so had to keep faking after 2008. Now, we apparently think we can live on fake forever but the universe will likely not oblige.

Look at the world. The massive amount of people coming online. The pressure on resources this causes. The diminishing low hanging fruit (oil, water, fertilizer etc). The democratization of knowledge around the globe leading to technical talent in places besides the West and their close acolytes. The broken nature of Western BigCos many of which are one step above Soviet factories at this point in terms of actual efficiency, worker buy in and productive honesty.

I don't know what happens from here, but do believe is we are at the cusp of a radical paradigm shift over the next decade. The next 100 years in the West don't look like the last 100 in which Western companies and their captive governments ran the globe unchallenged.

Maybe I'm a cynic and a pessimist but have zero desire to invest in indexes of ossified Western big company stocks at the moment. Their paper value (in my mind) generally doesn't support their true value and potential earnings going forward. Now, there are no doubt some winners in the bunch and when things settle they are worth picking through. The US still has a lot of potential but so much faking it backed up with regime change military/intelligence ops instead of encouraging productivity and innovation has to be sorted out first to give a stable platform for growth again. We have much further to fall in my opinion before stability is achieved, and I'm not tossing dice in expectation of a reward on that right now. And that includes things like the obscene housing ponzi. It has to wash out and return to a stable base.

Other people might feel differently and they might be right. I thought the same things in 2006 and people with more faith made a lot of money but eventually reality catches up, and perhaps this decade is that time. I'm not a person to bet it isn't.


> I hope this is true but I also feel like we no longer follow any kind of logic after 2008, we totally detached from reality.

You're not the only one, consider that the financial crisis was the per-cursur and the necessary backdrop for why Bitcoin was created; this system went from being an arcane, but seemingly reliable way to grow the economy up until 2008 when the house cards fell down and we realized most business models were all based on the 'greater fool theory.'

Monetizing everything and squeezing people for every nickle and dime for essentials became the norm: education, medicine, food, energy etc...

Honestly, this system only benefits a small fraction of the Human Population, but it ultimately relies on their continued exploitation. The great resignation has been a somewhat limited counter-banace but it's still not addressing the underlying fact that this system is so utterly broken and it cannot sustain itself without perpetual intervention from the Central Banks.

Their is nothing Capitalist about this system, it's feudalism with a very obvious plutocratic bend with it's aim to maintain itself via nepotism and corruption.

This isn't a criticism of Capitalism, though I have come to the conclusion that it is ultimately a flawed system that relies on perpetual and infinite growth models, and does an even poorer job at pricing-in externalities that have had and will continue to have even worse devastation: be it economical or environmental.

As an Anarcho-capitalist I agree it is the best of all the other worse system: I just think we have seen the limitations that even the freest markets can avail so long as the parallel system can destroy with impunity, but justify itself as the only thing that keeps the World from succumbing to utter chaos.

When in reality, we live in that chaos and have been in chaos for most of my entire existence (middle millennial) with only the thin veneer of order, what's remarkable is we haven't completely obliterated ourselves in that time--Russia is doing what most Nation-States have done since the advent of it's existance, and what the US did that made it the ire of Humanity in the last decade in the Middle East. They seek to consuldate and extract for thier own vested interests, often to the detriment of it's own populace as it really only seeks to maintain it's own order and enrich an already obscenely wealthy political class which curries favour from the business class.

Before, I used to watch Black Mirror or an Adam Curtis documentary solely for it's entertainment value, now I'm starting to see how prophetic much of what they focused on not just came into reality, but started to have more dire implications than was even portrayed.

In short, while those of us in the BTC community haven't the grounds to declare we have made a utopia by any stretch of the imagination, I'm just glad we have learned our lessons and realized the inevitable demise of the financial system is starting to become clearer to more and more.

Where this leads can be a horrible path, and we have had glimpses of it: the Russian invasion of Ukraine is over hubris and distorted views of the Soviet Union.

Just imagine what it will look like if we are fighting over water or food as we have for most of our Specie's existence?

People here benefited, or stand to benefit the most from this corrupt system: vesting is the only real way to make any real gains as it provides the bulk of most TC. Their inflated salaries at FAANG mean less when they hear the typical story about stocks getting IPO'd and even their first janitor team can afford to live in a mansion in Palo Alto and send his kids to Stanford.

But the truth is this model is utterly broken, just look at the environment and woke culture that the valley has become: homelessness, social inequality and worsening substance and mental health issues etc...

You'll just never get the HN crowds to go along with it because most are still just trying to 'get theirs' or have already 'gotten theirs' and are now too comfortable but keep telling themselves that rent-seeing is ok so long as it's them and they regard themselves as a 'disruptor.'

It's pathetic and a shame to see, to be honest. To see so many talented people waste their collective skills at a time when climate change, and shortages of everything are starting to be the norm: you'd think if they had any capacity to act in anything but their own self-interest and had a modicom of self-perseverance they'd try to sepnd at least some time trying to address these problems.

What good is money if this is this the World we live has always been my core moral compass that doesn't seem to be shared or well received when I work in tech. There is just a lots of lip-service but almost no deeds to back this up, it's a really just a bad platitude. One of many, unfortunately.

As a person studying AI and ML: you'd think that for a class of people who go on about 'meritocracy' being the end-all to explain why they are exceptional and are where they are and where most are they it's just hiding behind the limited window they have where the tech oligarchs allow them to be well compensated: but be under no illusion, they will quickly dispel with them when it's AI solution is as palatable is it can be, even if it means delivering a more mediocre solution and experience.


i totally agree




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