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1. Nominal interest rates are pretty normal right now. 3.3% on a 10y, that's not bad in history.

2. The government's debt is fixed. Only new deficit is on higher rates.

3. Completely agree, my thesis is that interest rates are going to continue to go up (IMHO 4%, 4.5%)



> 2. The government's debt is fixed. Only new deficit is on higher rates.

This is not that relevant because the government is completely dependent on borrowing new money to pay of old debt.


US government can’t afford 4%. Rates will rise until something breaks, but 4% will be transitory if it gets there at all. My bet is things break sooner than that.




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