Indeed you bring up a good point. There is risk. However, you never know what is the complete reason for someone getting fired, unless you are the one doing the firing. There are lots of things that do not get disclosed. It's also very easy to assume reasons if you're a bystander and be 100% wrong. I've certainly done that a lot.
It could easily have been that the other person got fired for completely unrelated reasons. It of course could also have been that he did in fact get fired for the reason suspected. In this case the question is again - what does the parent commenter want to optimize for? Is it peace of mind or job stability?
If the situation of having to lie is really bothering them, then perhaps the risk of things going wrong is worth taking? The original commenter is the only person that can decide that.
Also, if they keep lying, what's going to guarantee that they will not get promoted because they accidentally did well enough? Or if, indeed they keep getting not promoted, then will that look bad? Are they in an "up or out" level?
It could easily have been that the other person got fired for completely unrelated reasons. It of course could also have been that he did in fact get fired for the reason suspected. In this case the question is again - what does the parent commenter want to optimize for? Is it peace of mind or job stability?
If the situation of having to lie is really bothering them, then perhaps the risk of things going wrong is worth taking? The original commenter is the only person that can decide that.
Also, if they keep lying, what's going to guarantee that they will not get promoted because they accidentally did well enough? Or if, indeed they keep getting not promoted, then will that look bad? Are they in an "up or out" level?