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You don't seem to have a good understanding of the difference between the kind of war Russia is waging on Ukraine right now and an all-out war with all options on the table. The two are not comparable.


Yeah the kind of war Russia is fighting right now is already a snipe hunt because no modern nation has occupied an unwilling people since the fall of the Raj. The US’s involvement is more a function of time to Russian failure.

I think you’re the one who doesn’t understand the nuance of war.


That’s the thing. A big part of Ukraine’s citizens are willing. Crimea and the two breakaway republics are for sure.

The other issues are that Russians view Ukraine as their ancestral homeland[1], every major invasion of Russia has gone through it, and they view Ukraine in NATO as an existential threat.

On the other hand if Russia wins the only real consequence for the USA and EU is basically the status quo.

There is no way Russia backs down here and anyone with even a modicum of historical education knows it.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus'


> A big part of Ukraine’s citizens are willing. Crimea and the two breakaway republics are for sure.

This is over-simplifying it: Crimea has a big divide between the 60% ethnic Russian population and everyone else (e.g. the Tatars know they’re much better off in Ukraine as an ethnic and religious minority), and while the other occupied territories definitely have some supporters of rejoining Russia it’s not clear that this approaches even a plurality — and especially after the invasion, a lot of people will have reconsidered their positions as they see an illegal war featuring indiscriminate attacks on civilians.


> no modern nation has occupied an unwilling people since the fall of the Raj.

The number of IED used against the US says Iraq wasn't willingly occupied.


>no modern nation has occupied an unwilling people

Russia did exactly that in Grozny. They seem to be trying to do the same thing here in the same way :(


Wait wait wait.

At what point in history was Chechnya an internationally recognized free state a la Ukraine?

Sure there was a period of time when Chechnya was a semi-recognized failing state [0], but to say that it was in anyway comparable to Ukraine is disingenuous at best.

[0] news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/135716.stm


> At what point in history was Chechnya an internationally recognized free state

Since when does “an unwilling people” require “an internationally recognized free state”, or are those goalposts jet propelled?


Because what evidence do you You have that the majority of Chechnyans supported the non-Russian government?

When they briefly broke away from Russia, they were dominated by warlords. Not exactly a clear indication that there was a popularly supported free government (unlike Ukrainian which has formal elections with broad turnout).

Maybe apply a critical thinking lens?


You didn’t say anything about a state you talked about “an unwilling people”. States and peoples are different things.


Because what evidence do you You have that the majority of Chechnyans supported the non-Russian government? When they briefly broke away from Russia, they were dominated by warlords. Not exactly a clear indication that there was a popularly supported free government (unlike Ukrainian which has formal elections with broad turnout). Maybe apply a critical thinking lens?


I was talking exclusively about shelling and occupation.




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