Imagine how disconnected from the reality Putin must have been if in the modern world where you can get any information, to be so wrong about this. It looks like he really believed rusian army will be welcomed in Ukraine.
I read that he's been isolating himself because of Covid, and that he has a very limited circle of people who are allowed to talk to him (see the images of him at the head on a comically long table). If this is true and those people are sycophants, then he's operating in a different reality.
My theory is that he has a terminal illness. That would explain the intense fear of Covid, and would explain the rush to take all of Ukraine in one bite, rather than the methodical approach they've been taking over the last decade. Reconstituting the Russian empire is on his bucket list, and time is running out.
He's isolated like he's receiving chemotherapy. A few years back he pointed out that many leaders appeared to be dying of cancer. Add the US mortality statement last week and it's clear to me he's got terminal cancer.
Well, since we're theorizing: my theory is that he's f*in' goofy!
Which reminds me of an old joke:
The judge opened the courtroom proceedings: "Mr. Mouse, as I understand it, you're petitioning the court for a divorce from your wife because she is insane. Is that correct?
Mickey sighed: "No, your Honor, what I'm saying is that she's f*in' Goofy!"
It happened to George W and Dick Cheney when they convinced themselves Saddam was building nukes but the Iraqis would welcome us as liberators. Same thing here.
Do you believe they actually believed this? Was Bush really just a pawn to the military industrial complex? Maybe, I don't think this is true of Dick Cheney though.
I think they really did. Especially with how they went in with basically no plans whatsoever for nation-building post-invasion. I mean, I think they wanted to invade Iraq for a lot of reasons, but then convinced themselves that the Iraqis wanted it too.
My guess at the time was that with the international coalition keeping Saddam contained faltering, they decided it was better to finish him sooner rather than later, after he'd managed to rebuild his military.
It's helpful to remember that there is effectively no free/independent press in Russia (certainly not at these official meetings). Nobody snaps an embarrassing photo or takes a compromising video - all media is curated, censored, and crafted for release. If you're seeing it, it's because Kremlin wanted you to see it.
What's the message from that photo? That if Putin starts feeling unwell after the conference it wasn't due to one of those guys at the other end of the table?
In that photo, the message is "There is only one ruler". Putin represents the stern father figure, and in the moment of crisis, he does not debate, discuss, plead, or succumbs to the influence of the lesser court dwellers or foreigners.
Another example is this video of Putin's "heated exchange" with his chief spy [1]. The point of releasing that clip is to demonstrate that "The weak, meek, and confused oppose the ongoing liberation on independent nations". Viewers would not see themselves reflected in the speaker, and that distances them from his ideas. Yet there is a strong protagonist in that clip.
If we assume that we should probably all be really alarmed that a man that disconnected from reality has their finger on the nuclear trigger. I find the idea that they are ruthless and calculating and trying to force something that no one wants to somehow be the much less frightening option.
The narrative that "the native population will be happy, and they are suppressed by Nazis" is propaganda aimed at the Russian people and the army.
Putin knows very well what's happening, he has been planning this war for a very long time. He made sure the EU received less gas than agreed last summer, so their reserves are insufficient. Leaked plans show he is aiming to attack Moldova next.
Possibly also assuming that the Ukrainian army would falter like it did in 2014.
Totally ignoring (or not even receiving) the intelligence reports about the buildup that happened since then.
In any case, it's a surprising display of incompetence on so many levels. Possibly enough that in the end Putin's regime will fall without making Ukraine or the world a wasteland.
