Yeah, I think "hot take" [1] is the analytic analogue to expressions like "by the seat of the pants," [2] meaning something like: A rushed, likely emotional, reaction to something with no or minimal follow-up research or analysis.
Not precisely. What makes a "take" hot is its provocative or controversial nature. It's not quite flamebait -- that implies more of a deliberate attempt to sow discord -- but it's along the same lines.