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Defined benefit pensions are stupid unless you can print money. So it is fine for the US federal government to offer, such as Social Security, but since no one can see 5, 10, 20, or 30+ years into the future, no city, county, or state should be in the business of promising things that far into the future.

Otherwise, as evidenced by basically every data point, politicians will promise the DB pensions, then not fund them, then lay the costs on future generations.



> Defined benefit pensions are stupid unless you can print money.

Or you look at demographics ahead of time and have the political will to switch away from a pay-as-you-go system. Like Canada did with its CPP in the 1990s:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Pension_Plan#1996_refor...

Every three years the CPP is independently audited to make sure it is solvent 75 years out given certain assumptions:

* https://www.cppinvestments.com/the-fund/our-performance/actu...

And that includes audits from foreign auditors/actuaries that don't have a dog in the fight:

* https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/oca-bac/ipr-rip/Pages/gad30....

> no city, county, or state should be in the business of promising things that far into the future.

Health care workers in the province of Ontario would disagree:

* https://hoopp.com


Canada can print its own money though. They are effectively solvent no matter what. And sure, there might be some decent people working at decent DB pension funds.

But at the end of the day, what are they doing different that a target date fund from Vanguard/Schwab/Fidelity is not? Except the latter avoids agency risk and is super cheap.


And yet the health care works who have HOOPP also get it. As well as secondary school teachers (OTP), municipal workers (OMERS), etc. None of these entities can print money.

There's no guarantee that pensions will perform well of course (see Alberta). But as someone who spends a decent amount of time in /r/PersonalFinanceCanada, the random person on the street probably does worse.

> But at the end of the day, what are they doing different that a target date fund from Vanguard/Schwab/Fidelity is not?

1. Forced savings taken off their pay cheques no matter what, which solves a huge behaviour issue.

2. Run by folks who are better audited than individuals are personally, so results are readily available, and can be easily criticized for non-performance.


1. This is more easily accomplished as a federal program.

2. It is already very easy to write software that compares performance to an index.

Regardless, if the purpose of a DB pension fund is to protect people from their own proclivities, then a federal pay as you go system works better (cheaper, less agency risk). If the purpose is to supplement the amounts from the federal system, then a personal account at a brokerage invested in a low cost index works better.

I am not even sure why Canada invests its pension funds in the private markets. Canada can always issue new Canadian dollars anytime it needs to pay the benefits it has promised if tax receipts are insufficient. If anything, this leads to another perverse incentive of Canada’s government wanting to bail out businesses it has invested in.


Actually, if these funds are so good for the public good why not open it to all members of the public?

Surely just because you don’t work for Ontario doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be allowed a pension. Same in, same out should be the principle.


1. I wouldn't object. But employers would have to kick in money too, and some may not want to because that could potentially effect the bottom line. With (US) 401(k) (CA: RRSP), it's up to the employee to contribute and many don't so that saves companies money.

2. The listed pension funds are not for working specifically for the government, but are for more publicly focused aspects (health care, education). But there are other options, like folks who work in (e.g.) the food industry (supermarkets):

* http://ccwipp.ca/index.php/en/

Construction:

* https://www.lpfcec.org

And even general solutions:

* https://www.caatpension.ca

That said, the public sector pension (OPTrust) set up a system where Ontario charities / non-profits can join their general pool not too long ago:

* https://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2018/09/ontarios-new-non-p...

* https://www.optrust.com/AboutOPTrust/News/Nonprofits-Enroll-...

* https://theonn.ca/our-work/our-people/decent-work/pension/

BC is looking at pensions for gig workers:

* https://www.benefitscanada.com/benefits/health-benefits/b-c-...


Why make it on employers to kick in rather than say $x gets $y? The thing the fund performs on is amount of money in per person anyway.

Otherwise seems rather sensible.


3. Scale

Scale helps a lot because you tend to get closer to average returns and closer to the statistical distribution of payout timelines.


CPP is woefully inadequate to survive on in most of Canada.


Which is why there is also OAS and GIS.

CPP was never meant to be a 100% program.


You keep using the word "stupid", and I don't think you know what it means.

It would be "stupid" to not pay pensions, unless you don't see the risks in leaving a whole generation in their elderly years with no income whatsoever. Most evident of all, it would be a deadly blow agains the economy itself, especially in developed countries with aging populations.


I specified the condition that it is stupid for entities that cannot print money, due to the enormous moral hazard allowing today's taxpayers to soak future taxpayers in unstated debt which evident by looking at almost any US city or state government's finances.


you seem to assume that printing money absolves a (nation-)state from future liability. it doesn’t. it’s still a moral hazard either way. you’re still leaving the future with less; it’s only the accounting that changes.


I am aware it devalues the currency, it is the least morally hazardous way though.

It is inevitable that the longer people live during their non working years and the more top heavy the population pyramid becomes, that there will be less for future generations’ during their younger years.


the least morally hazardous way is to not take from the future at all. there’s no reason for the top-heavy not to take less into retirement. there’s also plenty of excess wealth to easily avoid stealing from the future while still providing for all the top-heavy now.


The only way to not take from the future is to kill yourself after you become unable to support yourself.


Nobody is proposing to just pull the rug out on pensions. We need to transition to a more sustainable option.


Why aren't pensions sustainable? Honest question.

At least in the US, there seems to be more than enough money to keep several branches going. The military just got $20 billion extra this year. Foreign aid is around $45 billion a year.

It's not that there isn't enough tax money.


They inevitably fall into the trap of promising that benefits will be paid for in the future.

At a national level that is probably okay, at a municipal level it means that people that leave a city get services that they don't pay for, and future residents pay for services they didn't benefit from. It's a terrible alignment.


You are describing pensions. That's how pensions work, and have been working for decades now.

Would creating a national pension system work better?


No, I'm making a particular point about public pensions. They should be fully funded during the vesting period or not exist, except maybe at the national level.

Note the "paid for" in "paid for in the future".


Sustainable implies “don’t need to print money forever”.


You really wouldn’t like Europe then xD




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