>Inflation also nets out to zero, since both the borrower and the lender (and the landlord and the renter) are using the same currency. Unless you argue that home buyers are systematically better at accounting for inflation than bankers, of course.
Stranger things have happened. Bankers have been wrong before. You could say that home sellers were right when banks who loaned money to buyers were wrong in 2006. I think inflation is likely to be higher than most people think, because there's no politically possible solution to the government's debt problems other than inflating our way out of it, despite its previous record of being a reliable debtor. If I'm right, that will mean that home buyers are indeed systematically better at accounting for inflation than bankers (or more like they will turn out to accidentally happen to be right).
At any rate, if the cost of renting is close to the cost of buying, as it is in my town (it's about the same here except that you don't have to fix the roof, etc, if you're renting), then even if I'm wrong, I won't lose much money as a new homebuyer in the next year or so.
>The problem with buying a house is that it's a massive bet on your local labor market.
That depends on your job. If you're have some specialized job or you're in a small town, that's something to think about, but lots of people have jobs for which they would never have to move. Even if that is an issue, it also depends on how comfortable you are with being a landlord, and how many people you know who would make likely good tenants.
Stranger things have happened. Bankers have been wrong before. You could say that home sellers were right when banks who loaned money to buyers were wrong in 2006. I think inflation is likely to be higher than most people think, because there's no politically possible solution to the government's debt problems other than inflating our way out of it, despite its previous record of being a reliable debtor. If I'm right, that will mean that home buyers are indeed systematically better at accounting for inflation than bankers (or more like they will turn out to accidentally happen to be right).
At any rate, if the cost of renting is close to the cost of buying, as it is in my town (it's about the same here except that you don't have to fix the roof, etc, if you're renting), then even if I'm wrong, I won't lose much money as a new homebuyer in the next year or so.
>The problem with buying a house is that it's a massive bet on your local labor market.
That depends on your job. If you're have some specialized job or you're in a small town, that's something to think about, but lots of people have jobs for which they would never have to move. Even if that is an issue, it also depends on how comfortable you are with being a landlord, and how many people you know who would make likely good tenants.