It would follow logically that it'd go down. It's like saying making murder illegal would only push murder under the table.
A company currently performs a simple mathematical equation when deciding to pay a ransom. Does the reputational and financial cost of not paying the ransom outweigh the price of the ransom? In a world where ransom payments were illegal, then those same companies would also have to include the legal penalties and probability of being caught as part of that equation.
Obviously, some companies would still see a net benefit in paying the ransom, but fewer would, so less ransoms would be paid.
It seems to me like you're trying to use 'war on drugs' logic on ransoms. The key difference is that companies don't want to pay ransoms, but do so out of necessity.
A company currently performs a simple mathematical equation when deciding to pay a ransom. Does the reputational and financial cost of not paying the ransom outweigh the price of the ransom? In a world where ransom payments were illegal, then those same companies would also have to include the legal penalties and probability of being caught as part of that equation.
Obviously, some companies would still see a net benefit in paying the ransom, but fewer would, so less ransoms would be paid.
It seems to me like you're trying to use 'war on drugs' logic on ransoms. The key difference is that companies don't want to pay ransoms, but do so out of necessity.