Sometimes I picture a lot of the covid measures as raising sandbag walls in front of a tsunami. Feels good to do something, anything, but the tsunami is going to do its thing, at best delayed a bit. The second the earthquake hit, Sendai was gone. There was nothing anybody could do about it. If that's "pretending it doesn't exist", then so be it.
* Vaccines are useful in preventing severe disease. Get one, especially if your are not a child. But they are also fragile and it's anybody's guess how they'll interact with a 'likely vaccine evading variant' (quoting Pfizer CEO here).
* It is unclear what effect the vaccines have on the virus evolution. We assume its going to be positive, but have no actual data on it.
* It is unclear what effect the vaccines have on disease spread. The big question is the effect of vaccines on the rate of 'asymptomatic spreaders', which may increase under a regimen of reducing symptom severity.
* Lockdowns have massive costs. Keeping the world running also saves lives, and it's not at all clear that the balance favors hard covid measures.
* Suspended school, masks and social distancing have severe costs in children. I am not sure we thought through the consequences on the next generation.
* The scapegoating shaping online is grotesque. Being a fortunate to be born post WW2 world with its bounty of health, I never understood the story of touching the leper. Until the reaction to the covid pandemic finally illuminated my mind.
The costs of attempts to cure the disease may be worse than the disease. And the disease is horrible.
I think it's an interesting discussion. Thanks for explaining your viewpoint, even if I don't agree with it.
But I'd like to ask again: You've listed a lot of points on what not to do. But so what should we do to tackle this virus? A virus that will quickly cause enough severe cases to require triage at hospitals.if left unchecked and that will not go away anymore on its own.
Or do you really view this as some sort of slow-motion Armageddon, destinied to bring in the end times - so any resistance is futile on principle?
The reality: The tsunami didn't end Japan. <50 age group covid is survived by 99.9% of the population. There is no Armageddon, at least not if the virus doesn't get significantly worse. Life expectancy might get a hit, fewer people are going to make it all the way to 80 and beyond.
The hope: Eventually everyone is getting exposed to covid, via vaccines, infection or both. At that point, hopefully, epidemic spikes will become minor, though sadly I don't think there is a path back to pre-pandemic innocence.
* Encourage vaccinations for everyone over 18, and especially over 65 where the bulk of the burden is. I say this with a heavy heart, because there appears to be at least one instance of leaky vaccines selecting for hypervirulent variants in veterinary applications. This is what gives me nightmares. I won't link to it, it's somewhere in my comment history if you are super-curious. Praying for the best. Maybe it's just me being prone to overweigh worst case scenarios. Maybe it's my grandma saying "God's punishment" for instances of lack of humility turning for the worse.
* Lift restrictions for children, especially under 12. I've seen credible data indicating that unvaxxed child covid risk is less than vaxxed parent covid risk. Keep schools open, remove blanket mask mandates, stop pushing vaccines, when it's beyond clear the risk and benefits for them are minuscule, and there are long-term questions around virus evolution trajectory. If I'm not mistaken, something like that happens already in a number of European countries: Swe and Den, possibly UK and NL.
* Exercise regularly, vitamin C & D, zinc, especially in winter season. This is a good time to open the conversation about obesity and diabetes. One side effect of the lockdowns is increased child obesity rates; this metric is trending the wrong way.
* Stay at home if having symptoms. Employer pays no questions asked.
* Probably a system of aid for symptomatic long covid cases. It is unclear how prevalent it is, but, for example, losing lung capacity is an absolute nightmare. Source: I could barely climb a flight of 5 stairs after a bout of pneumonia a few years back. Can't imagine holding a blue collar job in those circumstances.
* Probably skip eating out, partying or sports during an active infection spike, usually about 2 months. See covidestim.org for a very useful resource in estimating whether there is an ongoing spike or not.
* Hospitals are going to get overwhelmed during a spike because they are simply not built for spikes. If that is a concern, we should think on how to quickly scale capacity up and down. Might be very expensive. Perhaps something crazy like a National Health Guard.
* There are going to be victims, mostly old but some young. Please try to keep a bit of decency instead of rushing with every single case on social media for clicks and fear and panic. We are incurring great loss, we are supposed to mourn. It's disturbing.
* Stop scapegoating. The situation is miserable as is, no need to make it even worse through a hellish social landscape.
* Finally, please stop playing God. Recently a grant proposing to essentially design covid at WIH was leaked to the press. The grant was thankfully denied, but the thought that we are 2 inches away from triggering the next pandemic is troubling.
Edit: Come to think of it, this is how the system is supposed to work. People have different stations in life and different concerns. We stand together through hell and high water. We compromise. What we are getting instead is extremes: either hyper drastic measures or, I presume, complete lack of caution.
* Vaccines are useful in preventing severe disease. Get one, especially if your are not a child. But they are also fragile and it's anybody's guess how they'll interact with a 'likely vaccine evading variant' (quoting Pfizer CEO here).
* It is unclear what effect the vaccines have on the virus evolution. We assume its going to be positive, but have no actual data on it.
* It is unclear what effect the vaccines have on disease spread. The big question is the effect of vaccines on the rate of 'asymptomatic spreaders', which may increase under a regimen of reducing symptom severity.
* Lockdowns have massive costs. Keeping the world running also saves lives, and it's not at all clear that the balance favors hard covid measures.
* Suspended school, masks and social distancing have severe costs in children. I am not sure we thought through the consequences on the next generation.
* The scapegoating shaping online is grotesque. Being a fortunate to be born post WW2 world with its bounty of health, I never understood the story of touching the leper. Until the reaction to the covid pandemic finally illuminated my mind.
The costs of attempts to cure the disease may be worse than the disease. And the disease is horrible.