> Across the entire spectrum you're at less risk from the vaccine than you are from the disease.
You don't know me or my medical history, so you can't make that statement honestly. I am in a population where I am at borderline negligible risk from SARS-2 infection. The mere 24+ hours of post-second-shot acute inflammatory cascade, which is almost guaranteed, already eclipses the expected value of COVID symptoms I would experience if infected. (Perhaps you aren't aware of how stratified the risk is based off age and comorbidities?)
You doubly so cannot make such a statement when you don't know whether I've already had COVID previously. Someone who has had SARS-2 naturally and recovered is almost completely insulated from COVID risk. And this, by the way, is much moreso than compared to an unexposed-yet-vaccinated individual. And the effect size is massive, we're not talking about natural immunity being "20% better", we're talking like 800% better. Source: https://pastebin.com/8yR3y5NA
> That's so weird, all the data seems to indicate that in areas with high vaccination rates nobody gets sick and dies.
How closely have you been looking at the Israeli data? It is simply false that nobody gets sick and dies. The vaccines very significantly reduce the personal risk of hospitalization or death, but as I've already told you, my risk from SARS-2 is almost nonexistent, so that confers exactly zero benefit for me. The reason you and others are so concerned about vaccination is - I hope - the purported societal benefit of vaccination, and I've already hinted at the very predictable phenomenom that vaccinating against only the spike protein is just going to lead to antigenic drift and immune escape and will just end up spinning our wheels at best, and at worst it will actually lead to increased pathogenicity in the unvaccinated (https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...)
Your risk from the vaccine is lower than your risk from Covid lol - because you know the Covid disease creates fully functional viruses whereas the vaccine only incorporates a small subset that cannot reproduce. Why you would want the fully functional version is beyond me.
> Your risk from the vaccine is lower than your risk from Covid
You don't have the necessary information about my demographic and medical history to be able to make this claim. The following statement of yours is a non-sequitur because it in no way proves the claim of yours that I am at greater risk from SARS-2 infection than I am of a COVID vaccine:
> because you know the Covid disease creates fully functional viruses whereas the vaccine only incorporates a small subset that cannot reproduce. Why you would want the fully functional version is beyond me.
> You don't have the necessary information about my demographic and medical history to be able to make this claim.
I was referring to the aggregate, it is strictly correct unless you have a specific medical issue and I'm confident your doctor will inform you.
> The following statement of yours is a non-sequitur because it in no way proves the claim of yours that I am at greater risk from SARS-2 infection than I am of a COVID vaccine:
Sure it does. You will get COVID. You'll either be vaccinated at the time or you won't be.
> Sure it does. You will get COVID. You'll either be vaccinated at the time or you won't be.
That may be true, but it's another non-sequitur. You need to show that the acute and long-term risks of me receiving the moderna or the pfizer or the j&j, is lower than the risks to my health from getting COVID-19 while unvaccinated. And first you need to know whether I've already had COVID, because that's highly relevant to that calculation.
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I think you're missing the general principle here, so let me see if this hypothetical helps you. Imagine a hypothetical virus that spreads just like SARS-2 but has a 0% IFR, no symptoms, and no complications whatsoever, whether short or medium or long term.
Imagine a vaccine that is 100% effective at preventing this hypothetical 0% IFR virus from infecting me. Imagine that in 99.9999% of people, the vaccine causes no harm, but in that .0001% of people, it causes harm.
Which is more dangerous to me, getting infected with the hypothetical virus, or getting vaccinated?
> Which is more dangerous to me, getting infected with the hypothetical virus, or getting vaccinated?
You not getting vaccinated and then getting infected with COVID is more dangerous to you and those around you than you getting vaccinated and then infected. Those are the only two options. Everyone on earth will contract COVID. There's no need to engage a hypothetical when we have the numbers in front of us.
Surely you believe then that folks who refuse to get vaccinated on principle like yourself and then contract COVID should be triaged strictly below anyone else who needs medical care? I'm not saying that you shouldn't receive care, but you should receive it after everyone else has been sorted out. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes IMO.
You don't know me or my medical history, so you can't make that statement honestly. I am in a population where I am at borderline negligible risk from SARS-2 infection. The mere 24+ hours of post-second-shot acute inflammatory cascade, which is almost guaranteed, already eclipses the expected value of COVID symptoms I would experience if infected. (Perhaps you aren't aware of how stratified the risk is based off age and comorbidities?)
You doubly so cannot make such a statement when you don't know whether I've already had COVID previously. Someone who has had SARS-2 naturally and recovered is almost completely insulated from COVID risk. And this, by the way, is much moreso than compared to an unexposed-yet-vaccinated individual. And the effect size is massive, we're not talking about natural immunity being "20% better", we're talking like 800% better. Source: https://pastebin.com/8yR3y5NA
> That's so weird, all the data seems to indicate that in areas with high vaccination rates nobody gets sick and dies.
How closely have you been looking at the Israeli data? It is simply false that nobody gets sick and dies. The vaccines very significantly reduce the personal risk of hospitalization or death, but as I've already told you, my risk from SARS-2 is almost nonexistent, so that confers exactly zero benefit for me. The reason you and others are so concerned about vaccination is - I hope - the purported societal benefit of vaccination, and I've already hinted at the very predictable phenomenom that vaccinating against only the spike protein is just going to lead to antigenic drift and immune escape and will just end up spinning our wheels at best, and at worst it will actually lead to increased pathogenicity in the unvaccinated (https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...)