You can't argue with a cult. My entire wife's family are rabid GOPers and I have had multiple discussions where I have absolutely crushed them with facts and the outcome, nothing. They will simply deny anything that doesn't agree with their world view as "fake news" while believing anything Trump says without question.
How do you have a rational discussion like that? If folks can find absolutely zero common ground to agree on, there is no basis for any type of meaningful discourse.
I too have to deal with hard right wing Christians... I used to be one. The idea that they are too stupid or deluded to be talked to about anything just isn't true. Talking to people about emotionally charged issues is hard, and if your attitude is that they're all idiots you're not gonna do it productively. "Crushing" someone with facts will never, ever change their mind.
I've been able to have a lot of discussions with these types of people (albeit not everyone) because I understand them.
Right and Trump got boo'ed for saying people should get vaccinated because he's reaping the consequences of speaking without thought. I didn't say they're stupid, I said they're fools for believing what is obvious a bunch of politically motivated lies, science is no place for emotion.
What these people do lack is the ability to think critically about the subject, examine their biases, and challenge their assumptions. If we can't change people's mind with the truth, what possibly could make them realize they have been duped?
> Right and Trump got boo'ed for saying people should get vaccinated because he's reaping the consequences of speaking without thought.
Trump saying that massively reduced Democrats opinion on vaccines and massively increased Republicans opinion on vaccines though. People shift their opinions really easy over tiny things, every little bit that makes one side more convincing helps pushing people to the correct realization and vice versa. So it is very possible to convince a lot of people, thinking otherwise just ensure those people wont get convinced. It is a spectrum, every tiny step helps a lot, there is never a point where being more convincing no longer helps.
I hate to be pedantic but the poll you reference was in 2020 and Trump said that in May of 2021. I don't think it had a measurable effect on either party.
You are right, this was due to another statement by Trump. But Trump saying something about a vaccine had that big of an effect. As soon as Trump started talking about getting a vaccine out to the people Democrats started to think that an FDA approved vaccine would be a bad thing while Republicans started thinking it was a good thing. As you see in the graph after that statement both groups were almost equally willing to get vaccinated.
> Democrats' reduced confidence follows President Donald Trump's Labor Day announcement that a coronavirus vaccine could be ready in October, as well as subsequent news reports stating that Trump is eager to see a vaccine delivered before the election. Trump's accelerated timeline does not align with that of many government health experts, and this disagreement has raised concerns as to whether a vaccine distributed that soon would be effective and safe.
I would treat Democrats that refused a vaccination because it was Trump's FDA with the same disdain. The fact that this issue is divisive along political lines is what is so damn infuriating. This is science people, one of the few things left on the planet that can conceivably be free of emotional discourse and we're actively killing it for financial gain.
I'm not a Republican or a Democrat, I'm a scientist.
Most people aren't able to dispassionately pursue the truth. You need to remove emotional barriers first before the facts can be heard by finding ideological and emotional common ground somewhere and then using that camaraderie as an attack vector to convince them that something else that they believe is wrong. I have done that somewhat successfully with a fairly far-right person, managing to bring them back on some of their more extreme views.
It's possible you weren't the right person for this specific job. I believe that some alignment on at least some views is necessary for this process, otherwise the barriers just immediately go up.
Having said that, it's true that for some people no amount of reasoning or persuasion will work. The amount of cognitive dissonance and the extent to which the belief is tied into their self-worth and identity precludes anything but a years-long process of deradicalization. People aren't designed to be rational.
I didn't say they're stupid, I said their fools for believing what is obvious a bunch of politically motivated lies, science is no place for emotion.
No, you said "while believing anything Trump says without question."
If we can't change people's mind with the truth, what possibly could make them realize they have been duped?
Packaging matters. People are emotional and make rarely make factual determinations in a vacuum. Your attitude in our conversation so far tells me that you have a near-zero opinion of their intellect and have no idea why they believe what they believe (ie you say that they believe 100% of what Trump says, but 10 seconds later acknowledge they'll boo him at his own rally). You most likely come across as smug and superior in these conversations so while you may just be explaining that mRNA therapies have been in development for decades they will see it as an attack on them... Logical? No, but it's how humans operate. Maybe you're perfectly logical but I kinda doubt it.
Lets use creationism as an example because it's what I have the most experience with. You can argue until you're blue in the face with facts and won't get anywhere most of the time -- there were certainly people who had that experience with me 15-20 years ago. Looking back I wasn't interested in the facts. The Adam and Eve story had to be literal to explain original sin, which had to be a thing to explain Jesus' sacrifice which was one of the most central things I believed in. So when you'd crush me with facts demonstrating that the earth cannot be 6,000 years old you'd actually be tugging at the single most central thing I believed. Good luck.
I was reasoned out of young earth creationism, but I had to be in a place where Jesus was also on the table to be discussed. It took about a year from "oh shit, that's how radiometric dating works" to "uh yeah, none of this makes sense." Open discourse was the only way that was possible -- the talk.origins archive, books like Why Evolution is True by Coyne, lectures by friendly scientists, ect.
That's a lot of assumptions about me and my behavior. You're right on one thing, I don't understand how pride and selfishness can be such a driving force behind people's views. I don't think your analogy with creationism holds water though, it doesn't cause a public health hazard. While I don't personally endorse creationism, I could care less what you believe and only have an opinion if you are trying to force me into the same mindset and while science has undeniably proven creationism false, there is no real detectable detriment to folks believing it.
COVID on the other hand is a massive public health problem and I view this unfounded resistance in the same vein as drunk driving and yelling fire in a crowded theatre. Your freedom ends when it begins to endanger other people. If there were any even remotely reasonable arguments, I could engender some empathy for these folks, however there is not, it is complete lies, fabrication, and fear mongering. 2000 year old ghosts, while useful for creating a system of morality to keep people in line, is not a basis for scientific discourse.
In some ways, the political/medical alignment problem turns Cialdini on his head in that once one sees other people as "rabid GOPers" then an appeal using Cialdini's "Social Proof" would turn the target of persuasion against one's subject of persuasion.
If I, an unexpert, were to work on the problem, I would use the ambiguity of risk to hold the vax door open (if the target did other vaccines, did not hold strong religious whatevers against vax, etc). With the door open I might take advantage of information asymmetries and use Cialdini's "scarcity," letting them know that I know a particular place has vaccine X today which is better than vaccine Y because of some reasons, and that vaccine X is in short supply so if they were going to do it, this is a great opportunity.
Are they conspiracies when they start becoming true though? I remember when the vaccine mandates and passports were a "conspiracy" at the begging of the COVID lockdowns. Now, here we are...
Not unlike the censoring any discussion of the lab leak hypothesis they (the censors) better be perfectly accurate every single time.
The moment they get it wrong and censor something that turns out to be the truth they lose 100% of their credibility and become a part of the conspiracy themselves.
I remember having to provide vaccine proof to get my kids into public school, when enrolling them into college. How is this a new thing? Why is it such a big deal now? Why are these people kicking up such a fuss now?
The reason: GOP makes money and gains power by proving people will believe anything they say. This is a blind power grab and the only reason it is an issue is because it is a great talking point. Tucker Carlson and the like are only doing this to get money, why no one sees that is beyond me.
I agree, however how do you deal with folks knowingly spreading misinformation for financial gain? Most of the "sources" have an active interest in having people listen to them and will say anything that will get more people to tune in, no matter the content.
Do we just let them continue in an age where there are morons out there that will believe anything that is written in a coherent sentence or posted to Youtube with cool background music? At some point we have to hold people accountable, as this is straight up murder in some cases. Remember that girl that convinced her boyfriend to kill himself?
Why is that? The central point of my argument is that the death rate in the US is the highest it's been since the middle of WWII. Everyone keeps saying it's not a deadly disease, not many people are actually dying, that it is being inflated because it's being listed as the cause of death. The vaccines don't work, yet you're 11 times more likely to die if you have not been vaccinated. The fact of the matter is, this data is undeniable, there is no question on the number of dead people (not from COVID, just dead).
> death rate in the US is the highest it's been since the middle of WWII
Age standardized mortality rate (that is, accounts for an increasingly old population) is at 2008 levels in the UK. This doesn't account the total lack of treatment early on, patients were denied anti-inflammatory medicine and put on ventilators instead of normal oxygen.
> saying it's not a deadly disease, not many people are actually dying
Not many people are dying of COVID-19, they're dying with COVID-19. Most have serious underlying conditions.
> The vaccines don't work, yet you're 11 times more likely to die if you have not been vaccinated.
This is patently untrue. 87% of deaths and hospitalizations since July are vaccinated [1]. Now, this site might seem sketch, but you can download the reports from the Scottish government yourself and verify the math. I did, it's accurate. Tellingly, the latest report is missing the death count table.
If the vaccines have any affect at all, it's marginal, and only in the elderly. Of course, they don't work, that's why they're rolling out 'boosters' because the vaccines keep failing.
> Age standardized mortality rate (that is, accounts for an increasingly old population) is at 2008 levels in the UK. This doesn't account the total lack of treatment early on, patients were denied anti-inflammatory medicine and put on ventilators instead of normal oxygen.
Thank you for confirming my argument, vaccination rates in the UK are well over 80%.
> Not many people are dying of COVID-19, they're dying with COVID-19. Most have serious underlying conditions.
Actually, deaths from underlying health conditions are all up in addition to COVID deaths, try again.
> This is patently untrue. 87% of deaths and hospitalizations since July are vaccinated [1]. Now, this site might seem sketch, but you can download the reports from the Scottish government yourself and verify the math. I did, it's accurate. Tellingly, the latest report is missing the death count table.
That is not an honest statement, granted I should have qualified my statement with "in the US". Comparing a country with a much higher vaccination rate seems to be apples to oranges. Very interesting stat though, need to read more on that.
> If the vaccines have any affect at all, it's marginal, and only in the elderly. Of course, they don't work, that's why they're rolling out 'boosters' because the vaccines keep failing.
This is 100% supposition, what data would you cite, if any, to back this up?
EDIT: Did some more reading, apparently Moderna, Pfizer, and J&J only account for less than 34% of the vaccines administered in the UK, they are primarily utilizing other vaccines.
> Actually, deaths from underlying health conditions are all up in addition to COVID deaths, try again.
What does say about your WW2 mortality claim then?
Okay, so looking at the first study linked in the post article [1]:
Scroll down to the first table.
Not Fully Vaccinated: 569,142 cases, 6,132 deaths. Mortality in this group: 0.010774113
Fully Vaccinated: 46,312 cases, 616 deaths. Mortality in this group: 0.013301088
Look at those mortality rates closely, the Fully Vaccinated group is actually higher.
The next section has a different total number of cases, unexplained in the table itself, but let's take a look at the most vulnerable population in that table, 65 and over.
Now, that's a difference of 0.023472434 in mortality. I don't know what kind of math it takes to make 2.3% look like 11x better outcome, but I'm sure it's not math based in reality. That's about a 30% relative reduction in rate, and that's using highly specious numbers IMO, especially considering the CDC put out guidance to NOT TRACK 'breakthrough' cases unless the patient is hospitalized. Since this table includes a 'hospitalizations' column, one has to wonder how these vaccinated cases even got tracked in the first place.
Mind you, this is if you believe the CDC and their data in the first place, which I don't.
> What does say about your WW2 mortality claim then?
That statement doesn't even make sense. I'm refuting you statement that folks are not dying of COVID, their dying with COVID. It's just not true, if that were the case, we would see a corresponding drop in other causes of death. We didn't they actually went up, pretty close to how much they go up every year. But COVID deaths on top have gotten us to the point of WWII death rates in 1943. So in short, it completely proves my point.
> Look at those mortality rates closely, the Fully Vaccinated group is actually higher.
I think failure to interpret the study correctly does not actually make it incorrect. Try reading the whole thing instead of cherry picking numbers to try to prove your point.
> Mind you, this is if you believe the CDC and their data in the first place, which I don't.
What's there to "believe"? Deny what doesn't fit your world view is not a good playbook. Did you "believe" the CDC when Trump was in charge? Was it different then? Sometimes things we don't like still happen, even though we really don't want them to. Denying reality doesn't make it true.
> But COVID deaths on top have gotten us to the point of WWII death rates in 1943
Except, they didn't, as we discussed already.
> think failure to interpret the study correctly does not actually make it incorrect. Try reading the whole thing instead of cherry picking numbers to try to prove your point.
I don't need someone to interpret numbers for me, that's the difference. The rest of the 'study' is drivel. Not to mention, the data's already cherry picked.
> What's there to "believe"?
For starters, we have to take their numbers at face value. We know they're not aggressively collecting adverse reaction data, we know they're not doing much investigating vaccine caused death and illness, we know their numbers are most likely skewed to show the vaccines are beneficial. Despite this, the best they can come up with is a report that shows the mortality among vaccinated is higher than the unvaccinated.
How do you have a rational discussion like that? If folks can find absolutely zero common ground to agree on, there is no basis for any type of meaningful discourse.