Even with an air-source heat pump, as long as it's smart enough to defrost itself as appropriate, etc., you can definitely get a Coefficient of Performance greater than 1 even at below freezing outdoor temperatures. You could run it the majority of days even in winter, and while your current electricity prices may make it not competitive with current natural gas prices, it would be _efficient_. If natural gas externalities were priced in, it almost certainly would be cheaper to run a heat pump except when COP goes all the way down to 1, where yes, you would need an augmented/alternative heat source -- no denying that.
But if you have central air conditioning, which is pretty common in the Midwest, reverse operation is a heat pump. In practice, many A/C systems don't do that, but the capital cost between a central A/C only system and a central A/C + heat pump system is minimal. A/C + heat pump should really be the default, and supplemented or augmented for the few weeks when COP is too low, and for longer while the economics are the way they are.
One augmentation is that you can get non-air-source heat pumps. At least for buildings with several units, it _should_ be cost-effective to get a ground source -- just dig below the frost line. That's almost never something you can easily just hire a crew to do, so unfortunately it's not a practical suggestion right now, but if/when that market failure is dealt with, it'll be a good option for many, as you wouldn't need a secondary system.
Not trying to convince you to buy a heat pump by the way, the economics of it do matter a lot. I would like to sell people the efficiency argument though.
Even with an air-source heat pump, as long as it's smart enough to defrost itself as appropriate, etc., you can definitely get a Coefficient of Performance greater than 1 even at below freezing outdoor temperatures. You could run it the majority of days even in winter, and while your current electricity prices may make it not competitive with current natural gas prices, it would be _efficient_. If natural gas externalities were priced in, it almost certainly would be cheaper to run a heat pump except when COP goes all the way down to 1, where yes, you would need an augmented/alternative heat source -- no denying that.
But if you have central air conditioning, which is pretty common in the Midwest, reverse operation is a heat pump. In practice, many A/C systems don't do that, but the capital cost between a central A/C only system and a central A/C + heat pump system is minimal. A/C + heat pump should really be the default, and supplemented or augmented for the few weeks when COP is too low, and for longer while the economics are the way they are.
One augmentation is that you can get non-air-source heat pumps. At least for buildings with several units, it _should_ be cost-effective to get a ground source -- just dig below the frost line. That's almost never something you can easily just hire a crew to do, so unfortunately it's not a practical suggestion right now, but if/when that market failure is dealt with, it'll be a good option for many, as you wouldn't need a secondary system.
Not trying to convince you to buy a heat pump by the way, the economics of it do matter a lot. I would like to sell people the efficiency argument though.