> there's no great reasons for it to come from Canada
Energy security, not propping up authoritarian regimes with terrible human rights records, not requiring military interventions to protect a stable supply of oil.
Maybe not good enough reasons to change the balance, but reasons nonetheless.
> Obviously, you're right long-term but it's a slow transition not a switch we can flip.
And trains lend themselves much better to slow declining transition than a new pipeline. Can be used for other cargo; are a bit more expensive so they are a mild financial disincentive; the contaminated material (tanker cars) are by definition mobile and therefore easier to deal with at EOL.
I think that economies are stubborn beasts, if they can avoid change they will. I don't think it's reasonable to expect any sort of energy transition to occur gracefully while oil is in supply. As the price goes up we'll see some industries priced out and over time we'll see early adopters convert but we're not going to see a smooth transition for the populace at large.
It really depends on what “at large” you mean and the timing. If we passed a carbon tax and told everyone that oil will never be cheaper than it is now the phase-out would be relatively smooth: people would buy smaller, fuel efficient vehicles and EVs; there’d be more carpooling and combined trips; and people would be quicker to use transit or remote work. The same is true for home heating, various trades using equipment like lawnmowers, etc. — make a clear promise and do so across the board so people have the incentive to make capital investments.
The problem there is if you need to do it quickly: if the SUV/truck trend hadn’t caught on, for example, fleet economy wouldn’t have reversed the improvements we saw in the 80s and early 90s. The longer we wait, the harder that gradual transition will be.
This. To me it's like being a paper form printing company when computers were just becoming mainstream. Your days are numbered, deal with it and survive or don't and you wont.
I think it will change faster than that. The acceleration to electric vehicles has gone far gayer than I ever imagined possible thanks largely to Tesla. Solar and wind have also taken off in a way I would have never expected a decade ago.
A lot of innocent people are going to feel a lot of pain when that happens (along with completely guilty people of course) - I don't think it's avoidable myself but I can definitely sympathize with the people fighting to try and cushion the transition.
USA cutting off one of the most ethical jurisdictions in the world. Sacrificing energy independence and for what? Endless war and military expense propping up authoritarian governments with ongoing human rights abuses.
It did, which is kind of hilarious in hindsight because he kept saying “we can’t just dig our way to lower prices”, and they had no idea that some Texan would invent fracking…
Energy security, not propping up authoritarian regimes with terrible human rights records, not requiring military interventions to protect a stable supply of oil.
Maybe not good enough reasons to change the balance, but reasons nonetheless.